2099 Rowley Rd · Saratoga Springs, NY 12020

$349,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,566 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1955 7.15 ac lot ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on market at no fault of the sellers. Set on 7.15 acres in the sought-after Ballston Spa School District, this property offers a rare opportunity for those ready to bring a home back to life. Currently configured as a 3 bed 2 bath home with potential to be 5 beds, it features a one-car garage under the house with a dedicated workshop, ideal for hobbyists, storage, or creative use. This home requires renovation, but with the right vision, it has the potential to be completely transformed. Reimagine the layout, expand the footprint, and create a custom space tailored to your needs. Offering established garden space and open acreage, it's perfect for hobby farming, recreation, or simply e

Key facts

• One car garage
• Dedicated workshop
• Open acreage

Tags

• ONE CAR GARAGE
• DEDICATED WORKSHOP
• ESTABLISHED GARDEN SPACE
• OPEN ACREAGE
• HOBBY FARMING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-688/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Malta Avenue Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 342 students, 29% FRL); Ballston Spa Middle School (math 40% / reading 59%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 945 students, 32% FRL); Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $349k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $267,515 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $803,158
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5166 Nelson Ave Ext	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,317 (-10%)	8mo	$725,000	$313	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-46,177
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $18,992
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,342/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,748

Max offer price $338,865

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $41	+0% $-57	+5% $-156	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-269	-5% $-163	+0% $-57	+5% $48	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $31	base $-57	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $349,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   status $349,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-06
   listed $349,000 Active
6. 2024-02-26
   historical
7. 2024-01-24
   price $599,900
8. 2023-12-15
   listed $625,000 Active
9. 2021-06-19
   historical
10. 2020-12-10
    price $719,000
11. 2020-06-18
    listed $749,000 New
12. 2019-01-14
    soldstatus $83,000
13. 2018-03-18
    historical
14. 2017-03-20
    listed $687,000 New
15. 2016-01-30
    historical
16. 2016-01-30
    historical
17. 2016-01-01
    listed $687,000 New
18. 2015-10-29
    status Back On Market
19. 2015-10-29
    historical
20. 2015-10-27
    listed $280,000
21. 2015-10-02
    historical
22. 2015-09-09
    listed $999,999 Active
23. 2015-01-26
    historical
24. 2014-10-23
    listed $995,000
25. 2014-04-15
    soldstatus $181,792
26. 2010-01-28
    soldstatus $600,000
27. 2010-01-28
    soldstatus $600,000
28. 2007-02-08
    soldstatus $125,000
29. 2007-02-08
    soldstatus $125,000
30. 2006-07-24
    soldstatus $460,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,342 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,120 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,778/yr (+$148/mo · 75.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$2,342
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,568
• − Management: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$6,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,638
• After-tax cash flow: $949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $349,000 Global MLS
• 2024-02-26 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2024-01-24 Price Changed $599,900 Global MLS
• 2023-12-15 Listed $625,000 Global MLS
• 2021-06-19 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2020-12-10 Price Changed $719,000 Global MLS
• 2020-06-18 Listed $749,000 Global MLS
• 2019-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-18 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2017-03-20 Listed $687,000 Global MLS
• 2016-01-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2016-01-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2016-01-01 Listed $687,000 Global MLS
• 2015-10-29 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2015-10-29 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2015-10-27 Listed $280,000 Global MLS
• 2015-10-02 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2015-09-09 Listed $999,999 Global MLS
• 2015-01-26 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2014-10-23 Listed $995,000 Global MLS
• 2014-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $181,792 Public Records
• 2010-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records
• 2010-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,342 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.