The Cascade (330) Plan · Grangerland, TX 77302

$219,940

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 230 Days on market

Fair condition ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Large island
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE ISLAND
• SPACIOUS PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $219,940 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $248,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,469 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,490
• List price: $219,940
• Delta: -11.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14312 Grey Pointe Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$236,940	$165	90
14304 Grey Pointe	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	2mo	$221,590	$155	89
14301 Grey Pointe Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$229,940	$160	88
14162 Granger Pointe Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	0mo	$214,590	$150	87
14170 Granger Pointe Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	0mo	$227,940	$160	87
14155 Granger Pointe Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-2%)	4mo	$226,890	$161	83
14146 Granger Pointe Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-2%)	4mo	$251,540	$179	83
14158 Granger Pointe Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+8%)	2mo	$254,040	$163	70
14134 Granger Pointe Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+8%)	4mo	$244,040	$157	69
14320 Grey Pointe Ct	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+8%)	4mo	$250,040	$161	69
14166 Granger Pointe Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+8%)	2mo	$260,040	$167	69
16916 Rich Pines Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+9%)	2mo	$202,995	$129	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-66,170
• Equity at exit: $37,051

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-88,281
• Equity at exit: $21,485

Cash invested: $69,577 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,303
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,727/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,714

Max offer price $187,469

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,122
• Closing costs: $7,455
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	1d	13	1.01mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,940 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $219,940 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,940 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,940 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,940 Active 227 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,940 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,940 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,940 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,940 Active 219 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,940 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $240,940 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $239,940 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,940 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,940 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $212,790 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

16. 2026-05-02
    price $217,790 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

17. 2026-04-29
    price $214,790 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

18. 2026-04-23
    price $222,790 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

19. 2026-04-11
    price $229,790 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

20. 2026-03-11
    price $265,940 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

21. 2026-02-19
    price $238,990 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

22. 2026-02-06
    price $229,940 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

23. 2026-01-15
    price $244,940 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

24. 2026-01-05
    price $242,940 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

25. 2025-12-19
    price $240,940 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

26. 2025-12-05
    price $258,940 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

27. 2025-11-20
    price $268,940 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

28. 2025-11-01
    listed $238,990 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,919
• − Property taxes: −$3,727
• − Insurance: −$6,361
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,093
• − Management: −$2,093
• − Depreciation: −$7,229
• Taxable loss: −$9,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,223
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The Cascade home requires moderate renovations, primarily focusing on painting and window cleaning to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears slightly faded

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Window cleaning — Clean windows improve natural light and overall appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears slightly faded	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Window cleaning — Clean windows improve natural light and overall appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $212,790 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $217,790 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $214,790 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $222,790 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $229,790 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $265,940 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $238,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $229,940 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $244,940 Zillow
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $242,940 Zillow
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $240,940 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $258,940 Zillow
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $268,940 Zillow
• 2025-11-01 Listed $238,990 Zillow