5356 Spivey Glen Ct · Kathleen, FL 33810

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2004 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The property you are inquiring about is located in Lakeland, FL, in the Spivey Glen area of Polk County. This is a ready-to-move-into home which is featured on a one-entry street, large lot, 2-car garage, inside utility, public utilities, and swift conveniences. The details include 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open concept with plenty of room for entertaining and gatherings, 1,548 sq. ft. living, recent renovations, stainless steel appliances, granite, new roof, cabinetry, and more! See it! Text or call. Do you see the value? We can explain the math! * Agents, please read MLS remarks. *

Key facts

• Open concept
• Recent renovations
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT
• RECENT RENOVATIONS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Lot size about 0.26 acres (0.25–0.49 acre range)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 15)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces north; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,978 total; living area approximately 1,548
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room and dining room combo; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-746/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,554 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-53,112
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,548
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,025/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,574

Max offer price $289,012

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5537 Creek Haven Way Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2106	$2,150	$1.02	19d	1	0.26mi
3634 Sherertz Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,825	$1.42	3d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   status Active
3. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-09
   listed $300,000 Active
5. 2025-11-16
   historical
6. 2025-10-24
   price $337,900
7. 2025-09-27
   price $339,900
8. 2025-08-29
   price $344,900
9. 2025-07-22
   price $347,900
10. 2025-06-29
    price $349,900
11. 2025-06-17
    price $354,900
12. 2025-06-06
    price $359,900
13. 2025-05-16
    listed $369,900 Active
14. 2025-03-19
    soldstatus $220,000
15. 2005-01-12
    soldstatus $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,025 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,025 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,025
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,396
• − Management: −$2,396
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,417
• After-tax cash flow: $670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+130.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $337,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $339,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $344,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $347,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $349,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $354,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $359,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Listed $369,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,025 · +22.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.