8852 Siesta Ct · Grand Bay, AL 36541

$64,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2003 0.45 ac lot $49/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment Property! Handyman's special. 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home. Priced to sell. Home is being sold as is. Separate Workshop wifh electric, 1 car garage. Nearly 1/2 acre fenced back yard. Large front porch. Vacant, go & show in Showing time.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Large front porch
• Separate workshop

Tags

• SEPARATE WORKSHOP
• FENCED BACK YARD
• LARGE FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $792 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 2.3% in Grand Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#103 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $442 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,160 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.01%
• DSCR: 3.36
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,348
• List price: $64,000
• Delta: -55.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8852 Siesta Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	1mo	$58,000	$45	100
8830 Conquistador Ct E	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-7%)	13mo	$139,900	$117	72
8881 Spanish Trl W	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+0%)	22mo	$33,000	$25	69
11680 Linda Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-6%)	5mo	$219,900	$180	65
8765 Siesta Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	23mo	$50,000	$36	62
8861 Spanish Trail Ct W	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-15%)	10mo	$182,900	$166	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $40,044
• Equity at exit: $9,543

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $99,766
• Equity at exit: $5,534

Cash invested: $17,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36541

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $372/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $792

Break-even live

Break-even rent $498

Max offer price $64,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $828	-5% $810	+0% $792	+5% $774	+10% $755
Rent	-10% $673	-5% $732	+0% $792	+5% $851	+10% $910
Rate	-1.0pp $824	-0.5pp $808	base $792	+0.5pp $775	+1.0pp $758

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,000
• Closing costs: $1,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12180 Franklin Creek Ct Grand Bay, AL	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,500	$1.12	14d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $64,000 Pending 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $64,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $64,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   pricedays on market $64,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-05-08
   price $74,000 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Great Investment Property! Handyman's special. 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home. Priced to sell. Home is being sold as is. Separate Workshop wifh electric, 1 car garage. Nearly 1/2 acre fenced back yard. Large front porch. Vacant, go & show in Showing time.

6. 2026-04-15
   price $79,500 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Great Investment Property! Handyman's special. 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home. Priced to sell. Home is being sold as is. Separate Workshop wifh electric, 1 car garage. Nearly 1/2 acre fenced back yard. Large front porch. Vacant, go & show in Showing time.

7. 2026-03-26
   price $85,000 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Great Investment Property! Handyman's special. 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home. Priced to sell. Home is being sold as is. Separate Workshop wifh electric, 1 car garage. Nearly 1/2 acre fenced back yard. Large front porch. Vacant, go & show in Showing time.

8. 2026-03-11
   listed $90,000 Active 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Great Investment Property! Handyman's special. 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home. Priced to sell. Home is being sold as is. Separate Workshop wifh electric, 1 car garage. Nearly 1/2 acre fenced back yard. Large front porch. Vacant, go & show in Showing time.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,585
• − Property taxes: −$372
• − Insurance: −$320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$1,862
• Taxable income: $8,981
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,155
• After-tax cash flow: $7,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Grand Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #103
• US rank: #11625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,353
• Population (ZIP): 16,353

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 17% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.38%
• Current HPI: 208.4722
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $74,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $79,500 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $85,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-11 Listed $90,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $372 · +37.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.