2030 Black Canyon Rd #26 · Ramona, CA 92065

$174,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1988

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock Ramona’s best value! This 840 sq ft, 2BR/2BA home in Canyon Ridge Estates has the essentials—laminate floors, indoor laundry, peaceful rural living—and plenty of potential to make it your own.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1988
• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Highway 78 to Magnolia which turns into Black Canyon Rd.
• HOA & community: Trash service through association; Located in Canyon Ridge Estates; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s); Security lights
• Utilities: Public water and shared well; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Propane available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof; Updated/remodeled condition
• Exterior features: Has view; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher not listed; Free-standing range; Propane cooktop; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating (propane appliances noted)
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Disposal; Microwave; Free-standing range; Propane cooktop; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer and dryer listed; Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.0% in Ramona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#374 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A, commute B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Ramona City Unified (town): math 32% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #144 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $174k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,780 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.25%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,442
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $21,607
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92065

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$218 /mo · $2,610/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $174,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,999 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,999 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,999 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,999 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,999 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,999 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,999 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,999 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $179,999 Active 1110-char remark
18. 2026-01-09
    soldstatus $49,000 Closed Sale 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    Unlock Ramona’s best value! This 840 sq ft, 2BR/2BA home in Canyon Ridge Estates has the essentials—laminate floors, indoor laundry, peaceful rural living—and plenty of potential to make it your own.

19. 2025-12-15
    status Pending Sale 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    Unlock Ramona’s best value! This 840 sq ft, 2BR/2BA home in Canyon Ridge Estates has the essentials—laminate floors, indoor laundry, peaceful rural living—and plenty of potential to make it your own.

20. 2025-12-09
    listed $49,000 Active 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    Unlock Ramona’s best value! This 840 sq ft, 2BR/2BA home in Canyon Ridge Estates has the essentials—laminate floors, indoor laundry, peaceful rural living—and plenty of potential to make it your own.

21. 2025-12-06
    historical
22. 2025-10-16
    price $85,000
23. 2025-08-14
    price $99,500
24. 2025-07-23
    price $110,000
25. 2025-06-28
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,610
• − Insurance: −$1,667
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $2,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$624
• After-tax cash flow: $4,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ramona City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631710
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,226
• Composite: 43.38/100
• National rank: #3023
• State rank: #144 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ramona

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #12777

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ramona, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 36,752
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,752
• Household income: $125,285
• Rent vs Own: 21.6% rent · 78.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 850.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -595.55%
• Current HPI: 301.465
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+45.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $174,000 SDMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $179,999 SDMLS
• 2026-01-09 Sold (MLS) $49,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $49,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-06 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $85,000 SDMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $99,500 SDMLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $110,000 SDMLS
• 2025-06-28 Listed $120,000 SDMLS