4519 14th St E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$164,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 419 Days on market

Built 1985 4,400 sqft lot Est $119k · 38% over $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NOWS THE TIME TO BUY! Welcome to Tidevue Estates, a land-owned 55+ community. You could have immediate occupancy in this turn-key furnished home. The interior has been freshly painted and features updated light fixtures throughout. The A/C unit is only 4 years old, and the carport roof is just 2 years old, and has been brought up to hurricane code. The open floor plan is perfect for entertaining, with a kitchen that includes a dinette area, ideal for family and friends to gather. The 22x8 Florida room has a brand-new roof and added beadboard, making it a cozy space for relaxation or an office/craft/art area. The primary bedroom serves as a peaceful retreat with an en-suite bathroom that has

Key facts

• Carport roof
• Open floor plan
• A/c unit

Tags

• TURN-KEY FURNISHED HOME
• UPDATED LIGHT FIXTURES
• A/C UNIT
• CARPORT ROOF
• HURRICANE CODE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Tidevue Estates Civic Organization) — buyer approval required; HOA fee $50/month ($600 annually) — includes pool and recreational facilities; Community amenities: fitness center, laundry, park, pickleball, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard, street lights, association recreation owned; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Double wide; One level; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built (double wide) — building area 1,104 sq ft
• Exterior features: Awnings; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Asphalt road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Humidity control
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Outside laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $942 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,605/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 419 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $165k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 419 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.50%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,232
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 43rd Ave E	0.22mi	2/2.0	903 (+4%)	4mo	$73,500	$81	79
1532 47th Avenue Dr E	0.19mi	2/1.0	784 (-9%)	1mo	$129,900	$166	71
4212 13th St E	0.21mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	70
1416 41st Ave E	0.33mi	2/2.0	800 (-7%)	3mo	$160,000	$200	70
4603 10th Street Ct E	0.26mi	2/1.5	780 (-10%)	3mo	$108,000	$138	67
1005 45th Ave E	0.24mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	67
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.30mi	2/2.0	963 (+12%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $33,332
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $106,421
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,587/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $942

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	3d	1	0.32mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	3d	15	0.34mi
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	23d	1	0.56mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	3d	13	0.74mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	1.05mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	3d	37	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 419 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 418 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 417 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 416 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 414 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 413 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 411 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 410 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 409 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 408 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 404 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 403 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 402 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 401 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $164,900
16. 2026-03-07
    price $179,900
17. 2026-01-26
    price $184,200
18. 2025-10-23
    price $196,300
19. 2025-04-25
    listed $219,900 Active
20. 1993-09-15
    soldstatus $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,587
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,501
• − Management: −$2,501
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $9,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,212
• After-tax cash flow: $9,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+247.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $184,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $196,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Listed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,587 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.