1405 Mariners Cir · St. Simons, GA 31522

$519,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,772 sqft · Townhouse public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2016 2,178 sqft lot $293/sqft · 24% below area Est $679k · 24% under $437/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect location on Saint Simons for Vacation and FLETC personnel or for your own vacation spot. This immaculately decorated newer townhome is offered unfurnished for the price listed, but the current furnishings are available for separate purchase (comprehensive listing available upon request). Enjoy access to all amenities including the community pool and just a short walk away, Gascoigne Park. You can enjoy 1772 sf of luxurious spacious living with 9 foot ceilings on both floors and a 300 sf garage.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Fully furnished
• $437 HOA

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• COMMUNITY POOL
• NO RENTAL RESTRICTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a fee of $437.50

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with space for 1 car; Paved driveway
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Home comes with a home warranty
• Exterior features: Private pool; Driveway is paved

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Interior features: Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $519k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($392/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $482k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $482k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.7% in St. Simons — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Glynn County (other): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #47 of 174 in GA (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 734 units permitted in Glynn County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,824/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 339% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Glynn County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($503k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $365k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $482,354 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $678,657
• List price: $519,000
• Delta: -23.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Gascoigne Ave #201	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+1%)	2mo	$798,000	$445	95
105 Gascoigne Ave #103	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,836 (+4%)	0mo	$725,000	$395	89
105 Gascoigne Ave #302	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+1%)	6mo	$745,000	$417	89
117 Gascoigne Ave #106	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+1%)	8mo	$775,000	$432	89
1907 Mariners Cir	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,834 (+4%)	5mo	$580,000	$316	86
1603 Mariners Cir	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,596 (-10%)	4mo	$530,000	$332	79
802 Mariners Cir	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,024 (+14%)	3mo	$539,900	$267	68
1202 Reserve Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,772 (0%)	8mo	$561,750	$317	66
804 Reserve Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,772 (0%)	9mo	$530,000	$299	63
375 Brockinton Marsh	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-6%)	1mo	$429,000	$258	54
20 Waterfront Dr #124	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,550 (-12%)	1mo	$697,000	$450	45
20 Waterfront Dr #322	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,550 (-12%)	2mo	$615,225	$397	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-85,394
• Equity at exit: $77,385

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-85,321
• Equity at exit: $44,874

Cash invested: $145,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31522

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 577
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,836/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$437
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,013
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,782

Max offer price $519,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $180	+0% $33	+5% $-114	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-158	+0% $33	+5% $223	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $294	-0.5pp $165	base $33	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,750
• Closing costs: $15,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Gascoigne Ave #204 Saint Simons Island, GA	3.0	2.0	1760	$5,500	$3.12	44d	1	0.04mi
205 Mariners Cir Saint Simons Island, GA	4.0	3.5	2286	$5,700	$2.49	44d	1	0.10mi
122 Shady Brook Cir #100 Saint Simons Island, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$4,950	$3.30	44d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $437 · $5,244/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $519,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $519,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $519,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $519,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $519,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $519,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $519,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $519,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $534,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $534,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $534,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $534,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $534,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $534,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $534,900 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $534,900 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $534,900 Active 35 DOM
18. 2026-04-25
    listed $534,900 Active 474-char remark
19. 2021-02-04
    soldstatus $365,000
20. 2021-02-02
    soldstatus $365,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Perfect location on Saint Simons for Vacation and FLETC personnel or for your own vacation spot. This immaculately decorated newer townhome is offered unfurnished for the price listed, but the current furnishings are available for separate purchase (comprehensive listing available upon request). Enjoy access to all amenities including the community pool and just a short walk away, Gascoigne Park. You can enjoy 1772 sf of luxurious spacious living with 9 foot ceilings on both floors and a 300 sf garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,836 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,836 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,072
• − Property taxes: −$4,836
• − Insurance: −$2,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,631
• − Management: −$4,631
• − HOA: −$5,244
• − Depreciation: −$15,098
• Taxable loss: −$8,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,974
• After-tax cash flow: $2,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glynn County
• NCES district ID: 1302400
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,554
• Composite: 33.83/100
• National rank: #5359
• State rank: #47 of 174 in GA

Livability — St. Simons

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Simons, GA
• County: Glynn County · 69,019 people
• Metro: Brunswick, GA
• Population (ZIP): 17,780
• Household income: $108,632
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Glynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 91,404 people
• By 2030: 94,806 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 100,060 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 103,258 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 107,970 · +18.1%
• By 2100: 103,363 · +13.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Glynn

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.0) · D 36.8% · R 62.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.6pp toward R · 2008: -23.4pp · 2024: -26.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.0 2020: R+23.2 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -564.58%
• Current HPI: 191.6942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Brunswick, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+42.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $519,000 GIAR
• 2026-04-25 Listed $534,900 GIAR
• 2021-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-02 Sold (MLS) $365,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,836 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.