12932 3rd · Clearlake Oaks, CA 95423

$150,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 237 Days on market

Built 1946 5,227 sqft lot $268/sqft · at area comps Est $155k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All fenced in with 3 tuff sheds on the property. Needs some tlc. Corner lot.

Key facts

• 3 tuff sheds
• Fenced in
• Corner lot

Tags

• FENCED IN
• CORNER LOT
• 3 TUFF SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.3% in Clearlake Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#569 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Lake (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,555 of 1,571 statewide, top 99%, 244 students, 88% FRL); Highlands Academy (reading 24%, 12 students, 92% FRL); Lower Lake High (math 4% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,034 of 1,170 statewide, top 88%, 1,057 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,209
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -3.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12881 4th	0.12mi	2/1.0 (+1)	640 (+14%)	5mo	$50,000	$78	62
680 Pebble Way	0.53mi	2/1.0 (+1)	624 (+11%)	20mo	$216,500	$347	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,882
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,456
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95423

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,555/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,239

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $222	+0% $180	+5% $137	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $64	-5% $122	+0% $180	+5% $238	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $255	-0.5pp $218	base $180	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $150,000 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $150,000 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 217 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 216 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 215 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 214 DOM
19. 2025-10-28
    listed $150,000 Active 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    All fenced in with 3 tuff sheds on the property. Needs some tlc. Corner lot.

20. 2018-08-03
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed Sale 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    This home has been completely remodeled and fully renovated with new flooring, paint, kitchen and bath. Plenty of storage with 3 out buildings that can be an office or shop. Home sits on a large corner lot with room for a garden and family gatherings. This one will not last long, and is priced right. Make this bungalow your new home or vacation spot here in beautiful Clear Lake.

21. 2018-07-25
    listed Active Under Contract 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    This home has been completely remodeled and fully renovated with new flooring, paint, kitchen and bath. Plenty of storage with 3 out buildings that can be an office or shop. Home sits on a large corner lot with room for a garden and family gatherings. This one will not last long, and is priced right. Make this bungalow your new home or vacation spot here in beautiful Clear Lake.

22. 2018-07-18
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed Sale 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    This home has been completely remodeled and fully renovated with new flooring, paint, kitchen and bath. Plenty of storage with 3 out buildings that can be an office or shop. Home sits on a large corner lot with room for a garden and family gatherings. This one will not last long, and is priced right. Make this bungalow your new home or vacation spot here in beautiful Clear Lake.

23. 2018-06-04
    historical Active Under Contract 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    This home has been completely remodeled and fully renovated with new flooring, paint, kitchen and bath. Plenty of storage with 3 out buildings that can be an office or shop. Home sits on a large corner lot with room for a garden and family gatherings. This one will not last long, and is priced right. Make this bungalow your new home or vacation spot here in beautiful Clear Lake.

24. 2018-05-23
    listed $119,000 Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    This home has been completely remodeled and fully renovated with new flooring, paint, kitchen and bath. Plenty of storage with 3 out buildings that can be an office or shop. Home sits on a large corner lot with room for a garden and family gatherings. This one will not last long, and is priced right. Make this bungalow your new home or vacation spot here in beautiful Clear Lake.

25. 2018-05-05
    historical
26. 2018-05-04
    price $89,000
27. 2018-04-04
    price $99,000
28. 2017-11-06
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,555 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,555 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,555
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$70
• After-tax cash flow: $2,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake Oaks

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #18675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake Oaks, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,432

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.32%
• Current HPI: 178.9812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+30.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-28 Listed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2018-08-03 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CRMLS
• 2018-07-25 Listed — CRMLS
• 2018-07-18 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CRMLS
• 2018-06-04 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2018-05-23 Listed $119,000 CRMLS
• 2018-05-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2018-05-04 Price Changed $89,000 CRMLS
• 2018-04-04 Price Changed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2017-11-06 Listed $115,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,555 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.