14519 Draycott Ln · Houston, TX 77045

$146,145

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,049 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1960 6,268 sqft lot Est $164k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great home for 1st. time home owner 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath, living, dining and kitchen. If you are a 1st. time home buyer this is the starter home for you. Easy access to Sam Houston Tollway and S.Post Oak Rd.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Private bath
• Backyard

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• DEDICATED DINING SPACE
• PRIVATE BATH
• BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1960; Brick and vinyl siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 8); Bedroom on the first floor (9 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (9 x 11); 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen/dining combo; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Grissom El (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,225 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 467 students, 95% FRL); Lawson Middle (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,274 students, 96% FRL); Madison H S (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,537 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,924 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,145

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,644
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14531 Essendine Ln	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,019 (-3%)	2mo	$115,000	$113	91
14410 Hiram Clarke Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,103 (+5%)	1mo	$79,000	$72	81
14518 Player St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,082 (+3%)	17mo	$95,000	$88	74
4827 Dalmatian Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,156 (+10%)	10mo	$149,000	$129	63
4631 Brownstone Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+5%)	13mo	$219,000	$199	57
14024 Wrigley St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,108 (+6%)	22mo	$359,900	$325	44
4630 Brownstone Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,154 (+10%)	23mo	$180,000	$156	42
4715 Rosebud Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+15%)	23mo	$239,000	$199	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,064
• Equity at exit: $21,791

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,149
• Equity at exit: $12,636

Cash invested: $40,921 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77045

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,673 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,020/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,366

Max offer price $146,145

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $284	+0% $243	+5% $201	+10% $160
Rent	-10% $110	-5% $177	+0% $243	+5% $309	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $280	base $243	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,536
• Closing costs: $4,384
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14002 Santa Teresa Rd Houston, TX	4.0	1.5	864	$1,197	$1.39	45d	1	0.92mi
5234 Jorns St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,599	$1.26	23d	1	1.20mi
15706 Clarke Springs Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,495	$1.27	18d	1	1.32mi
15706 Clarke Springs Dr Unit 15706C Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,495	$1.27	17d	1	1.32mi
4630 Callery Creek Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,695	$1.29	26d	1	1.32mi
15025 Alkay St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1162	$2,050	$1.76	23d	1	1.34mi
4627 Callery Creek Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,700	$1.30	45d	1	1.35mi
15750 Clarke Springs Dr Unit 15750C Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	45d	1	1.41mi
15774 Clarke Springs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	23d	1	1.45mi
15774 Clarke Springs Dr Unit 15774C Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	22d	1	1.45mi
15727 Reddy Ln Unit 15727R Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	700	$1,595	$2.28	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $146,145 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $146,145 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $146,145 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $146,145 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,186
• − Property taxes: −$3,020
• − Insurance: −$731
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,606
• − Management: −$1,606
• − Depreciation: −$4,251
• Taxable income: $674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$162
• After-tax cash flow: $2,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,563
• Household income: $59,688
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 37% Two or more races 25% White 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Ukrainian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Arabic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.49%
• Current HPI: 282.5426
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+141.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $146,145 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-02 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2009-05-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-04-13 Listed $34,900 HARMLS
• 2009-04-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-02-18 Listed $47,400 HARMLS
• 2009-02-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-01-28 Listed $49,900 HARMLS
• 2008-12-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-09-25 Listed $54,900 HARMLS
• 2008-09-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-01-29 Listed $60,500 HARMLS
• 2006-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,020 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.