1358 Oak Park Dr · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$229,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1958 1,790 sqft lot $214/sqft · 49% above area Est $154k · 49% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A COMPLETELY REMODELED HOME! EVERYTHING IS EW TO THE STUDS!! ALL ELECTRIC, PLUMBING, GAS LINES, SHEETROCK, INSULATION, DUCT WORK IN ATTIC. NEW LIGHTING THROUGHOUT. GREAT FOR FIRST-TIME BUYERS, RETIRED, OR RENTAL PROPERTY. LARGE FENCED YARD. WONDERFUL LARGE COVERED PATIO FOR ENTERTAINING WITH ALL NEW LIGHTING. GREAT FOR BBQ'S AND LOTS OF FUN, ROOM FOR BOAT AND RV PARKING. cOME LOOK!!

Key facts

• Large fenced yard
• Covered patio
• Room for rv parking

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• LARGE FENCED YARD
• COVERED PATIO
• ROOM FOR BOAT
• ROOM FOR RV PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $208k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask is 15167% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.95%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,795
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: 48.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Spoonbill Ave	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+4%)	4mo	$175,000	$156	76
113 Pelican	0.14mi	3/2.0	978 (-9%)	7mo	$185,000	$189	69
1433 S Mccampbell	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-2%)	13mo	$198,900	$188	68
110 Saunders	0.17mi	3/2.0	978 (-9%)	10mo	$205,000	$210	65
108 Spoonbill Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,185 (+10%)	11mo	$209,000	$176	59
110 Mallard	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+10%)	12mo	$210,000	$177	58
101 Saunders Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+12%)	9mo	$220,000	$182	57
102 Mallard Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,186 (+11%)	11mo	$215,000	$181	57
118 Pelican	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+11%)	16mo	$210,000	$176	55
921 S Mccampbell	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,121 (+5%)	10mo	$199,000	$178	54
813 South Houston St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (+2%)	11mo	$79,900	$73	48
660 S Mccampbell St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-15%)	13mo	$199,000	$218	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,619
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $55,771
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,844/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,046

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $768	-5% $703	+0% $638	+5% $574	+10% $509
Rent	-10% $413	-5% $526	+0% $638	+5% $751	+10% $864
Rate	-1.0pp $754	-0.5pp $697	base $638	+0.5pp $579	+1.0pp $519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	45d	1	0.32mi
203 E Ransom Rd Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	1.0	625	$1,145	$1.83	15d	5	0.59mi
1109 W Nelson Ave Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	45d	1	0.93mi
2255 McMullen Ln Aransas Pass, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$1,569	$0.99	15d	9	1.37mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $229,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $235,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $1,500
18. 2026-02-19
    listed $235,000 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    THIS IS A COMPLETELY REMODELED HOME! EVERYTHING IS EW TO THE STUDS!! ALL ELECTRIC, PLUMBING, GAS LINES, SHEETROCK, INSULATION, DUCT WORK IN ATTIC. NEW LIGHTING THROUGHOUT. GREAT FOR FIRST-TIME BUYERS, RETIRED, OR RENTAL PROPERTY. LARGE FENCED YARD. WONDERFUL LARGE COVERED PATIO FOR ENTERTAINING WITH ALL NEW LIGHTING. GREAT FOR BBQ'S AND LOTS OF FUN, ROOM FOR BOAT AND RV PARKING. cOME LOOK!!

19. 2025-12-21
    historical $1,500
20. 2025-12-18
    listed $1,500
21. 2025-11-28
    historical $1,500
22. 2025-11-03
    listed $1,500
23. 2025-02-18
    status Active
24. 2025-01-16
    status Active
25. 2025-01-16
    listed $215,000 Active
26. 2025-01-10
    price $215,000
27. 2024-12-15
    price $225,000
28. 2024-10-17
    price $227,900
29. 2024-09-07
    price $229,900
30. 2024-06-10
    listed $237,500 Active
31. 2003-06-18
    soldstatus
32. 2003-05-02
    listed $41,900
33. 1995-03-17
    soldstatus
34. 1995-01-21
    listed $34,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,844 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,191 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 9.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,844
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,740
• − Management: −$2,740
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $4,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,031
• After-tax cash flow: $6,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-95.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed for Rent $1,500 CBMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $235,000 CBMLS
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $1,500 CBMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,500 CBMLS
• 2025-11-28 Rental Removed $1,500 CBMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed for Rent $1,500 CBMLS
• 2025-02-18 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2025-01-16 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2025-01-16 Listed $215,000 CBMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $215,000 CBMLS
• 2024-12-15 Price Changed $225,000 CBMLS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $227,900 CBMLS
• 2024-09-07 Price Changed $229,900 CBMLS
• 2024-06-10 Listed $237,500 CBMLS
• 2003-06-18 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2003-05-02 Listed $41,900 CBMLS
• 1995-03-17 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 1995-01-21 Listed $34,500 CBMLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,844 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.