9123 Church · St. Louis, MO 63137

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 830 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1945 6,403 sqft lot $102/sqft · 39% above area Est $61k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Opportunity – Turnkey Rental with Strong Cash Flow with a long-term tenant already in place paying $900/month plus utilities on a month-to-month lease. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home (approx. 830 sq ft) sits on a generous lot and offers a solid foundation for strong returns. The recent mechanical and structural updates mean very low upcoming repair costs, allowing for better cash flow from day one. Updates: New roof (2018), Copper electrical panel upgrade (2018), Copper plumbing replaced throughout (2021,) New A/C (2021,) New furnace (2026), New water heater (2026). Please do not disturb the current tenant; showings allowed with accepted contract.

Key facts

• Strong cash flow
• Long term tenant
• Turnkey rental

Tags

• TURNKEY RENTAL
• STRONG CASH FLOW
• LONG TERM TENANT
• RECENT MECHANICAL UPDATES
• STRUCTURAL UPDATES
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $85k implies a 962% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.69%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,288
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 38.69%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
925 Riverview Blvd	0.04mi	2/1.0	830 (0%)	0mo	$93,000	$112	98
8770 Jordan Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0	884 (+6%)	3mo	$48,000	$54	78
853 Nassau Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0	768 (-8%)	5mo	$39,000	$51	76
963 Canaan Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0	816 (-2%)	7mo	$29,750	$36	72
949 Canaan Ave	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (-4%)	4mo	$47,625	$60	71
819 Portland Ter	0.18mi	2/1.0	936 (+13%)	1mo	$60,000	$64	70
820 Elias Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	832 (+0%)	8mo	$47,500	$57	69
948 Harlan Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0	928 (+12%)	8mo	$20,000	$22	64
828 Marias Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0	884 (+6%)	4mo	$64,900	$73	58
817 Lebon Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0	884 (+6%)	2mo	$93,000	$105	55
1158 Waldorf Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	944 (+14%)	8mo	$102,000	$108	46
810 Teurville Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	904 (+9%)	7mo	$70,000	$77	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $9,926
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $51,329
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63137

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,045 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $403/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $652

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
819 Gustav Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$740	$1.35	24d	1	0.15mi
819 Gustav Ave Apt C St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$800	$1.45	44d	1	0.15mi
819 Gustav Ave Unit 832 B St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$740	$1.35	44d	1	0.15mi
605 Fremont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	44d	1	0.32mi
960 Raford Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	24d	1	0.36mi
1131 Canaan Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	624	$900	$1.44	16d	1	0.40mi
8530 Lowell St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	918	$1,100	$1.20	44d	1	0.48mi
849 River Trail Ct Apt 201 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	44d	1	0.48mi
849 River Trail Ct #102 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	24d	1	0.48mi
8612 Halls Ferry Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$775	$1.24	4d	2	0.61mi
1225 Newark Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	944	$1,400	$1.48	3d	1	0.62mi
8828 Riverview Blvd Apt 2S St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	816	$850	$1.04	44d	1	0.63mi
9418 Pattonwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	982	$1,500	$1.53	24d	1	0.70mi
2056 Coleridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	949	$1,195	$1.26	24d	1	0.81mi
8548 Drury Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,420	$1.28	44d	1	1.04mi
1942 Damato Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	905	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.27mi
8817 Shady Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,075	$0.99	24d	1	1.31mi
5955 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,050	$1.02	3d	1	1.33mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	44d	1	1.35mi
5932 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,373	$1.27	20d	1	1.36mi
8527 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	976	$1,295	$1.33	44d	1	1.41mi
8502 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1072	$1,175	$1.10	24d	1	1.44mi
623 Ludlow Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,199	$1.43	24d	1	1.45mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	8d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $85,000 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Investor Opportunity – Turnkey Rental with Strong Cash Flow with a long-term tenant already in place paying $900/month plus utilities on a month-to-month lease. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home (approx. 830 sq ft) sits on a generous lot and offers a solid foundation for strong returns. The recent mechanical and structural updates mean very low upcoming repair costs, allowing for better cash flow from day one. Updates: New roof (2018), Copper electrical panel upgrade (2018), Copper plumbing replaced throughout (2021,) New A/C (2021,) New furnace (2026), New water heater (2026). Please do not disturb the current tenant; showings allowed with accepted contract.

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $90,000 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Investor Opportunity – Turnkey Rental with Strong Cash Flow with a long-term tenant already in place paying $900/month plus utilities on a month-to-month lease. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home (approx. 830 sq ft) sits on a generous lot and offers a solid foundation for strong returns. The recent mechanical and structural updates mean very low upcoming repair costs, allowing for better cash flow from day one. Updates: New roof (2018), Copper electrical panel upgrade (2018), Copper plumbing replaced throughout (2021,) New A/C (2021,) New furnace (2026), New water heater (2026). Please do not disturb the current tenant; showings allowed with accepted contract.

16. 2010-11-22
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $403 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$421/yr (+$35/mo · 104.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$403
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,004
• − Management: −$1,004
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$594
• After-tax cash flow: $3,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,684
• Household income: $43,422
• Rent vs Own: 52.2% rent · 47.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1863.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 82% White 13% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.70%
• Current HPI: 130.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+962.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $85,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $90,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $403 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.