881 Road 590114 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$191,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $146/sqft · 15% above area Est $167k · 15% over $10/mo HOA ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 81775363 - Built by NHC - Jun 2026 completion! ~ Model 1311 B1 - Olympic The Olympic Plan from our Freedom Series offers a versatile 4-bedroom layout within a well-designed single-story home featuring 1,113 square feet of living space and 2 full bathrooms. The foyer leads into an open concept living, dining, and kitchen area that serves as the home’s main gathering space. The kitchen is designed with a central island, adding workspace and creating a welcoming spot for meals and conversation. The primary suite is set apart from the secondary bedrooms and features a comfortable bedroom, a walk-in closet, and a private full bath. Three additional bedrooms share centrally located full bath, offering flexibility for family members, guests, or a dedicated office or hobby room.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $192k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $192k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $191,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.89%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,686
• List price: $191,990
• Delta: 15.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
673 Maria Elena Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (+8%)	1mo	$180,991	$128	68
381 Lucia Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,208 (-8%)	1mo	$172,990	$143	67
378 Lucia Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,208 (-8%)	1mo	$174,990	$145	67
338 Road 5840 Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+3%)	1mo	$172,000	$127	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,347
• Equity at exit: $28,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $52,045
• Equity at exit: $16,600

Cash invested: $53,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,310 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$240 /mo · $2,880/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $191,990

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,998
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	12d	1	0.14mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	15d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $191,990 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $191,990 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $191,990 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $191,990 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $191,990 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $191,990 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $191,990 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $191,990 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $191,990 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $191,990 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $191,990 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $191,990 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $191,990 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $197,990 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    Model 1311 B1 - Olympic

15. 2026-05-14
    price $197,990 23-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    Model 1311 B1 - Olympic

16. 2026-05-04
    listed $199,990 Active 23-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    Model 1311 B1 - Olympic

17. 2026-03-11
    price $199,990 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    MLS# 81775363 - Built by NHC - Jun 2026 completion! ~ Model 1311 B1 - Olympic The Olympic Plan from our Freedom Series offers a versatile 4-bedroom layout within a well-designed single-story home featuring 1,113 square feet of living space and 2 full bathrooms. The foyer leads into an open concept living, dining, and kitchen area that serves as the home’s main gathering space. The kitchen is designed with a central island, adding workspace and creating a welcoming spot for meals and conversation. The primary suite is set apart from the secondary bedrooms and features a comfortable bedroom, a walk-in closet, and a private full bath. Three additional bedrooms share centrally located full bath, offering flexibility for family members, guests, or a dedicated office or hobby room.

18. 2026-02-12
    price $215,990 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    MLS# 81775363 - Built by NHC - Jun 2026 completion! ~ Model 1311 B1 - Olympic The Olympic Plan from our Freedom Series offers a versatile 4-bedroom layout within a well-designed single-story home featuring 1,113 square feet of living space and 2 full bathrooms. The foyer leads into an open concept living, dining, and kitchen area that serves as the home’s main gathering space. The kitchen is designed with a central island, adding workspace and creating a welcoming spot for meals and conversation. The primary suite is set apart from the secondary bedrooms and features a comfortable bedroom, a walk-in closet, and a private full bath. Three additional bedrooms share centrally located full bath, offering flexibility for family members, guests, or a dedicated office or hobby room.

19. 2025-12-17
    listed $216,656 Active 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    MLS# 81775363 - Built by NHC - Jun 2026 completion! ~ Model 1311 B1 - Olympic The Olympic Plan from our Freedom Series offers a versatile 4-bedroom layout within a well-designed single-story home featuring 1,113 square feet of living space and 2 full bathrooms. The foyer leads into an open concept living, dining, and kitchen area that serves as the home’s main gathering space. The kitchen is designed with a central island, adding workspace and creating a welcoming spot for meals and conversation. The primary suite is set apart from the secondary bedrooms and features a comfortable bedroom, a walk-in closet, and a private full bath. Three additional bedrooms share centrally located full bath, offering flexibility for family members, guests, or a dedicated office or hobby room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,754
• − Property taxes: −$2,880
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,217
• − Management: −$2,217
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable income: $2,982
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$716
• After-tax cash flow: $5,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in living areas — Improves aesthetics and adds value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in living areas — Improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $197,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $197,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Listed $199,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $215,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $216,656 HARMLS