743 Hernandez Dr · Donna, TX 78537

$171,888

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1987 6,482 sqft lot $144/sqft · 6% below area Est $184k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 2-bath home with an additional studio room in an established neighborhood. Remodeled in 2022, this property offers an open-concept living and dining area, a spacious backyard, and a versatile flex room perfect for an office, gym, or storage. Conveniently located just minutes from the freeway.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Versatile flex room
• Conveniently located

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• VERSATILE FLEX ROOM
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.7% in Donna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,411 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eloy Garza Salazar El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 436 students, 94% FRL); Dora M Sauceda Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 660 students, 100% FRL); Donna North H S (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,539 of 1,632 statewide, top 95%, 2,091 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 48% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,152 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.67%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,747
• List price: $171,888
• Delta: -6.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4811 Hernandez Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,187 (-1%)	5mo	$169,000	$142	83
4616 Hernandez Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,254 (+5%)	10mo	$190,000	$152	73
348 Merida St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-2%)	3mo	$193,500	$165	61
405 Merida Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,164 (-3%)	2mo	$204,700	$176	60
400 Merida St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-2%)	4mo	$193,500	$165	60
351 Merida Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+4%)	1mo	$210,000	$169	59
324 Coro St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+2%)	6mo	$214,999	$176	54
349 Barcelona St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,284 (+7%)	2mo	$199,900	$156	49
330 Coro St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+7%)	5mo	$217,500	$170	48
403 Barcelona Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+7%)	6mo	$199,500	$155	47
313 Barcelona St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+10%)	1mo	$209,500	$159	46
419 Placer Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,108 (-7%)	22mo	$209,000	$189	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $79,137
• Equity at exit: $154,850

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $244,448
• Equity at exit: $333,941

Cash invested: $48,129 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78537

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$901
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,348/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,479

Max offer price $131,715

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-130	-5% $-179	+0% $-227	+5% $-276	+10% $-325
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-274	+0% $-227	+5% $-180	+10% $-133
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-184	base $-227	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,972
• Closing costs: $5,157
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $171,888 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $171,888 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $171,888 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $171,888 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $171,888 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $171,888 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $171,888 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $171,888 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $171,888 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $171,888 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $171,888 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $171,888 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $171,888 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $171,888 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $171,888 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $171,888 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $171,888 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-02-23
    listed $181,888 Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    3-bedroom, 2-bath home with an additional studio room in an established neighborhood. Remodeled in 2022, this property offers an open-concept living and dining area, a spacious backyard, and a versatile flex room perfect for an office, gym, or storage. Conveniently located just minutes from the freeway.

19. 2022-08-22
    status Pending
20. 2022-08-21
    status Active
21. 2022-08-18
    status Pending
22. 2022-06-13
    status Active
23. 2022-05-24
    status Pending
24. 2022-05-18
    listed $159,500 Active
25. 2022-03-07
    historical
26. 2022-03-03
    soldstatus
27. 2022-03-02
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2022-02-20
    status Pending
29. 2022-02-10
    listed $114,900 Active
30. 2003-01-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,348 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,146 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$797/yr (+$66/mo · 34.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,348
• − Insurance: −$859
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,144
• − Management: −$1,144
• − Depreciation: −$5,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Donna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $27,330
• Composite: 11.16/100
• National rank: #9728
• State rank: #821 of 826 in TX

Livability — Donna

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1411
• US rank: #24172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 51,346
• Population (ZIP): 51,346

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 49% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.30%
• Current HPI: 243.3933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+58.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $181,888 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-08-22 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-08-21 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-08-18 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-06-13 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-05-24 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-05-18 Listed $159,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-03-07 Delisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-02 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-02-20 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-02-10 Listed $114,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2003-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,348 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.