70 Lemon Tree Cir #78 · Vacaville, CA 95687

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1977 Average condition Est $206k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lemon Tree Mobile Home Park, a highly desirable 55+ senior community in Vacaville! This spacious 1,392 sq. ft. home features 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering a fantastic opportunity to bring your personal touches and updates to make it your own. As a resident of this welcoming community, you will enjoy wonderful on-site amenities including a sparkling swimming pool, BBQ area, and a friendly clubhouse. The location is truly unbeatable, situated just off Orange Drive with incredibly convenient access to premier shopping and dining at the Vacaville Premium Outlets, daily necessities at nearby Target and Walmart, and top-tier healthcare at the local Kaiser Permanente Hospita

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Bbq area
• Premier shopping

Tags

• ON-SITE AMENITIES
• SPARKLING SWIMMING POOL
• BBQ AREA
• FRIENDLY CLUBHOUSE
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• PREMIER SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Lemon Tree Mobile Home Park
• Financial info: Land lease (space rent) applies
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 2 total parking spaces; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Internet available; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Faces southeast
• Construction: Composition roof; Aluminum skirting; Manufactured by Fleetwood
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Carpeted patio/porch area; Carport awning; Porch awning; Close to clubhouse; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Gas cooktop; Range hood; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Ice maker; Freestanding refrigerator; Breakfast area and island
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub/shower over tub and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Great room; Dining and living room combined; Breakfast area, island and pantry in the kitchen; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry area; Gas hook-up for laundry; 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 3.0% in Vacaville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in CA, #3,156 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Vacaville Unified (suburban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #522 of 1,400 in CA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.40%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,016
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Lemon Tree Cir	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	3mo	$130,000	$90	91
199 Lemon Tree Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	4mo	$158,000	$118	89
71 Lemon Tree Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	4mo	$140,000	$104	88
182 Lemon Tree Cir	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	6mo	$110,000	$76	84
174 Lemon Tree Cir	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	8mo	$199,000	$148	81
173 Lemon Tree Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	9mo	$180,000	$125	80
22 Lemon Tree Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	16mo	$239,000	$166	79
137 Lemon Tree Cir	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	4mo	$189,000	$151	71
32 Lemon Tree Cir	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-15%)	4mo	$185,000	$156	69
176 Lemon Tree Cir	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,575 (+13%)	7mo	$186,500	$118	67
117 Lemon Tree Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-7%)	14mo	$219,000	$168	66
187 Lemon Tree Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+10%)	13mo	$232,000	$151	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $45,506
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $105,734
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95687

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $1,165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Lassen Cir Vacaville, CA	2.0	2.0	1043	$2,150	$2.06	23d	1	0.34mi
188 Glacier Cir Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,750	$2.00	13d	1	0.47mi
132 Bryce Way Vacaville, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$2,350	$1.82	44d	1	0.55mi
3500 Harbison Dr Vacaville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,768	$2.67	13d	11	0.97mi
100 Summerfield Dr Vacaville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,535	$2.82	13d	6	1.10mi
784 Arabian Cir Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1804	$3,300	$1.83	43d	1	1.16mi
1187 Notre Dame Cir Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.5	1807	$3,100	$1.72	43d	1	1.22mi
1200 Allison Dr Vacaville, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,866	$2.97	13d	15	1.27mi
555 Elmira Rd Vacaville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	822	$2,325	$2.83	13d	1	1.30mi
1000 Allison Dr Vacaville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	990	$3,100	$3.13	13d	15	1.40mi
1407 Callen St Unit C Vacaville, CA	2.0	1.5	950	$2,000	$2.11	43d	1	1.46mi
245 Christine Dr Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1533	$3,400	$2.22	43d	1	1.47mi
208 Richard Pl Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1512	$3,250	$2.15	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,507
• − Management: −$2,507
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $12,661
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,039
• After-tax cash flow: $10,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home in Lemon Tree Mobile Home Park is in average condition with some minor repairs needed. It offers a good opportunity for cosmetic updates and improvements to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor interior walls/paint — Some minor wear is visible on the interior walls and paint.
• Minor interior walls/paint — Some minor wear is visible on the interior walls and paint.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers or renters.
• Both replace awnings — New awnings can improve the home's curb appeal and provide shade, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both update kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and attract more buyers or renters.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can boost both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC system — A functional and energy-efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce utility costs, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both roof inspection — Ensuring the roof is in good condition can prevent costly repairs and improve the home's overall value.
• Both foundation inspection — A stable foundation is crucial for the home's structural integrity and can impact both resale and rental value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can boost both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
interior walls/paint · Some minor wear is visible on the interior walls and paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls/paint · Some minor wear is visible on the interior walls and paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both replace awnings — New awnings can improve the home's curb appeal and provide shade, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both update kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can boost both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC system — A functional and energy-efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce utility costs, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both roof inspection — Ensuring the roof is in good condition can prevent costly repairs and improve the home's overall value. ↑
• Both foundation inspection — A stable foundation is crucial for the home's structural integrity and can impact both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can boost both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vacaville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640590
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $71,383
• Composite: 42.48/100
• National rank: #6877
• State rank: #522 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Vacaville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #3156

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vacaville, CA
• County: Solano County · 433,239 people
• City population: 109,591
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 69,390
• Household income: $109,566
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.59%
• Current HPI: 268.0777
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $130,000 BAREIS