Cibola Plan · Deerwood, TX 77306

$185,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Open floorplan
• Enhanced privacy

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• ENHANCED PRIVACY

🏗️ New construction. The $185,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $209,123.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $186k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 34% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $163,671 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.53%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,123
• List price: $185,990
• Delta: -11.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17127 Saxophone Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	0mo	$195,990	$128	99
17119 Saxophone Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$194,990	$127	96
3602 Duplet Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	1mo	$188,990	$139	72
17143 Saxophone Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	2mo	$189,990	$140	72
17836 Lionheart Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,521 (-1%)	6mo	$249,900	$164	64
17135 Saxophone Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	1mo	$188,990	$139	63
17868 Lionheart Rd	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,477 (-4%)	9mo	$229,900	$156	56
17852 Lionheart Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-10%)	0mo	$224,900	$162	48
16430 Tracy Ct	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,667 (+9%)	1mo	$220,000	$132	47
3862 Highline Oaks W	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-11%)	1mo	$319,990	$234	47
17840 Lionheart Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-10%)	3mo	$224,900	$162	47
17678 Cedar Crest Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,384 (-10%)	6mo	$215,000	$155	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-16,658
• Equity at exit: $31,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,771
• Equity at exit: $18,081

Cash invested: $58,554 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,097
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$261 /mo · $3,137/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,829

Max offer price $209,123

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $342	+0% $270	+5% $198	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $98	-5% $184	+0% $270	+5% $356	+10% $442
Rate	-1.0pp $375	-0.5pp $323	base $270	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,281
• Closing costs: $6,274
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	45d	1	0.76mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	11d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,990 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,990 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,990 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,990 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,990 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,990 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $185,990 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $191,990 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $191,990 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $191,990 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $191,990 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $191,990 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $191,990 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $191,990 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $191,990 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-02-19
    listed $191,990 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,714
• − Property taxes: −$3,137
• − Insurance: −$1,046
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − Depreciation: −$6,084
• Taxable loss: −$95
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$23
• After-tax cash flow: $3,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home features a modern open floorplan and four bedrooms, including a luxurious owner's suite. The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed and a fresh paint job can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security.
• Rental Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security. ↑
• Rental Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $191,990 Zillow