615 W Avenue J · Muleshoe, TX 79347

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1962 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with tons of potential and room to make it your own! Conveniently located close to the high school and junior high, this property offers both space and a great location. This home features a large backyard perfect for entertaining, kids, pets, gardening, or future outdoor projects. A brand-new storage shed in the back provides extra space for tools, hobbies, or additional storage needs. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with an add-on that has been converted into a master bedroom, providing added flexibility and comfort. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking for a place to personalize or an investor searching for your next opportunity, this prop

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Functional layout
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• BRAND-NEW STORAGE SHED
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick and brick veneer construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Built on a 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Storage structure on the property

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Gas and electric water heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#331 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Muleshoe ISD (town): math 33% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #580 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Bailey County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Bailey County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,907 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $29,018
• Equity at exit: $90,425

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $94,626
• Equity at exit: $155,859

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79347

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,180/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,482

Max offer price $138,673

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-30	-5% $-75	+0% $-121	+5% $-166	+10% $-211
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-173	+0% $-121	+5% $-68	+10% $-16
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-80	base $-121	+0.5pp $-162	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $160,000 Active
18. 2007-07-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,180 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,180 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,180
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$4,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,008
• After-tax cash flow: $-441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Muleshoe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831890
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,141
• Composite: 27.54/100
• National rank: #6950
• State rank: #580 of 826 in TX

Livability — Muleshoe

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #7229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Muleshoe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,264

Population outlook (Bailey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,346 people
• By 2030: 7,428 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 7,706 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 8,052 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 8,963 · +22.0%
• By 2100: 9,549 · +30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% White 31% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bailey

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -40.4pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.1 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Current HPI: 138.9883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $160,000 AARMLS
• 2007-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,180 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.