938 Citrus Dr · Alamo, TX 78516

$69,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,303 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 1885 Fair condition 6,249 sqft lot $54/sqft · 59% below area $230/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check this new listing out in a 55+ gated retirement community This 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath modular home is on a large lot. This home features large living room, kitchen appliances, washer, dryer, and nice size Texas room, Covered back patio, and a side patio that is fenced in, small workshop and large carport This home is in Alamo Country Club voted best retirement community in the Rio Grande Valley. ACC offers 9 hole golf course, golf practice driving range, large swimming pool and hot tub, tennis, pickle ball and shuffleboard courts, dog park, RV storage for nominal fee, walking trails, fitness room, library, billiards room. Major medical facilities, airports and shopping within minutes. Approximately 1 hour drive to South Padre Island.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Fenced side patio
• Small workshop

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FENCED SIDE PATIO
• SMALL WORKSHOP
• LARGE CARPORT
• LARGE SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.7% in Alamo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#916 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.53%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,434
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -59.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
934 Katrin Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,305 (+0%)	6mo	$169,900	$130	92
912 Palm Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,257 (-4%)	6mo	$154,000	$123	81
928 Katrin Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+6%)	7mo	$169,900	$124	76
912 Santa Anna Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,235 (-5%)	5mo	$149,900	$121	76
316 Diana Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,370 (+5%)	6mo	$165,000	$120	73
917 Citrus Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,446 (+11%)	6mo	$174,000	$120	71
320 Diana Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,427 (+10%)	8mo	$180,000	$126	65
905 Citrus Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,492 (+14%)	5mo	$139,900	$94	64
810 Santa Anna Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,426 (+9%)	6mo	$215,000	$151	59
814 N 7th St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,357 (+4%)	7mo	$210,000	$155	52
911 Santa Anna Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (+14%)	12mo	$159,900	$108	50
425 E Nebraska Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+15%)	9mo	$245,000	$164	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $6,005
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $27,992
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78516

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,244 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $903

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1020 Palm Dr Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,225	$1.14	23d	1	0.15mi
1036 Palm Dr Unit 1 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,225	$1.14	23d	1	0.15mi
1032 Palm Dr Apt 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,225	$1.14	23d	1	0.15mi
1020 Palm Dr Unit 1 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,275	$1.18	44d	1	0.23mi
435 Medina Ln Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	0.25mi
443 Medina Ln Unit 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,125	$1.24	23d	1	0.25mi
435 Medina Ln Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,125	$1.24	23d	1	0.25mi
427 Frio Ln Apt 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,125	$1.24	21d	1	0.28mi
440 Frio Ln Apt 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,275	$1.40	44d	1	0.28mi
427 Frio Ln Apt 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,275	$1.14	44d	1	0.28mi
440 Frio Ln Apt 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	0.28mi
448 Frio Ln Apt 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	0.28mi
448 Frio Ln Apt 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,200	$1.32	23d	1	0.28mi
440 Frio Ln Apt 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,200	$1.32	23d	1	0.28mi
444 Frio Ln Apt 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,125	$1.24	23d	1	0.28mi
439 Frio Ln Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,125	$1.24	23d	1	0.28mi
529 Country Club Dr Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,950	$1.37	14d	1	0.39mi
812 Santa Anna Dr Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	14d	1	0.42mi
1122 Country Club Dr Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,200	$1.13	14d	1	0.49mi
1233 Country Club Dr Unit 4 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,050	$0.96	44d	1	0.49mi
740 N Alamo Rd Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.11mi
740 N Alamo Rd Unit 2 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,075	$1.12	44d	1	1.11mi
740 N Alamo Rd Unit 2 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,075	$1.12	23d	1	1.11mi
428 E Acacia Ave Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	23d	1	1.15mi
444 E Acacia Ave Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	23d	1	1.15mi
436 E Acacia Ave Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,225	$1.08	14d	1	1.15mi
1236 N Alamo Rd Alamo, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,250	$0.91	44d	1	1.24mi
1225 Valle Vista St Unit 2 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.25mi
1203 W Jasmine Ave Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$1,500	$0.94	21d	1	1.29mi
1305 Valle Vista St Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	44d	1	1.29mi
1225 Valle Vista St Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	44d	1	1.38mi
1309 Valle Vista St Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	44d	1	1.38mi
1126 Grandeur Dr Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	14d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $230 · $2,760/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $69,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-05-10
    price $79,900 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Check this new listing out in a 55+ gated retirement community This 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath modular home is on a large lot. This home features large living room, kitchen appliances, washer, dryer, and nice size Texas room, Covered back patio, and a side patio that is fenced in, small workshop and large carport This home is in Alamo Country Club voted best retirement community in the Rio Grande Valley. ACC offers 9 hole golf course, golf practice driving range, large swimming pool and hot tub, tennis, pickle ball and shuffleboard courts, dog park, RV storage for nominal fee, walking trails, fitness room, library, billiards room. Major medical facilities, airports and shopping within minutes. Approximately 1 hour drive to South Padre Island.

19. 2026-03-02
    price $89,900 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Check this new listing out in a 55+ gated retirement community This 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath modular home is on a large lot. This home features large living room, kitchen appliances, washer, dryer, and nice size Texas room, Covered back patio, and a side patio that is fenced in, small workshop and large carport This home is in Alamo Country Club voted best retirement community in the Rio Grande Valley. ACC offers 9 hole golf course, golf practice driving range, large swimming pool and hot tub, tennis, pickle ball and shuffleboard courts, dog park, RV storage for nominal fee, walking trails, fitness room, library, billiards room. Major medical facilities, airports and shopping within minutes. Approximately 1 hour drive to South Padre Island.

20. 2026-02-19
    listed $99,500 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Check this new listing out in a 55+ gated retirement community This 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath modular home is on a large lot. This home features large living room, kitchen appliances, washer, dryer, and nice size Texas room, Covered back patio, and a side patio that is fenced in, small workshop and large carport This home is in Alamo Country Club voted best retirement community in the Rio Grande Valley. ACC offers 9 hole golf course, golf practice driving range, large swimming pool and hot tub, tennis, pickle ball and shuffleboard courts, dog park, RV storage for nominal fee, walking trails, fitness room, library, billiards room. Major medical facilities, airports and shopping within minutes. Approximately 1 hour drive to South Padre Island.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,194
• − Management: −$1,194
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $2,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$584
• After-tax cash flow: $2,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom modular home in a gated retirement community requires moderate repairs and updates to its kitchen and bathrooms to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate kitchen flooring — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom flooring — dated and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and flooring — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both update bathroom cabinets and flooring — modernizing the bathrooms would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and appeal to buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen flooring · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom flooring · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$12,000–60,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and flooring — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathroom cabinets and flooring — modernizing the bathrooms would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and appeal to buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Donna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $27,330
• Composite: 11.16/100
• National rank: #9728
• State rank: #821 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alamo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #916
• US rank: #16356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamo, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 34,370
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,370
• Household income: $53,229
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 476.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 40% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 86%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.56%
• Current HPI: 225.4438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $79,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $89,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $99,500 MCALLENMLS