121 Brookline Ave · Mechanicstown, NY 10940

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 735 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1930 2,760 sqft lot Est $176k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in this 3-bedroom home featuring an open-concept kitchen, dining area, and living room, plus the convenience of an attached garage. The home offers a functional layout, while presenting an excellent opportunity for updates and personal touches to maximize its potential. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, schools, healthcare facilities, and major commuter routes, with easy access to everyday amenities. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity, this property offers value, potential, and room to make it your own.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Attached garage
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Sewer: other
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Construction details listed as other
• Exterior features: Other construction materials; Other foundation details; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances listed as other
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ducted heating; Other heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Other interior features noted
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.1% in Mechanicstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#375 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: William A Carter School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 777 students, 76% FRL); Middletown Twin Towers Middle School (math 10% / reading 42%, grade F, #595 of 729 statewide, top 82%, 858 students, 78% FRL); Middletown High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 2,523 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $200k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.40%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,400
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
91 Bellevernon Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	725 (-1%)	5mo	$145,000	$200	75
3 Hulse St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-2%)	23mo	$172,500	$240	61
40 Carpenter Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-9%)	13mo	$141,000	$210	48
25 Lafayette Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (+8%)	8mo	$318,000	$402	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,162
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $95,157
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,204 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,042/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,649

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $495	+0% $439	+5% $382	+10% $325
Rent	-10% $265	-5% $352	+0% $439	+5% $526	+10% $613
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $490	base $439	+0.5pp $387	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Fairfax Ave Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	630	$1,850	$2.94	44d	1	0.01mi
31 Beattie Ave #2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	718	$2,000	$2.79	44d	1	0.82mi
17 Academy Ave Unit 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,850	$2.47	44d	1	0.89mi
126 W Main St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	700	$2,200	$3.14	44d	1	1.45mi
36 Wallkill Ave Unit 36 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	500	$2,050	$4.10	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 583-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,711 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,042
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,151
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$516
• After-tax cash flow: $4,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mechanicstown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #6457

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mechanicstown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1233.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 1981-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,042 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.