318 N 30th St · Louisville, KY 40212

$59,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 1900 6,974 sqft lot ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Stripped to the studs and ready for vision—true investor special on a larger-than-typical double lot in the Portland revitalization corridor. Approx. 0.16± acres with a 432 sq ft detached garage per PVA, plus siding estimated 90% complete, remaining siding, roofing materials, framing lumber, and solar panels all on site (solar transfers as-is). Estimated finished potential 1,600-1,800+ sq ft depending on final design and approvals. Buyer to verify all zoning, utilities, structural feasibility, and permits. Sold as-is; no utilities, no warranties.

Key facts

• Double lot
• Solar panels on site
• Detached garage

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SOLAR PANELS ON SITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Portland subdivision
• HOA & community: No association fee; no monthly maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); see remarks for details
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Traditional single-family home; Two stories
• Construction: Built in 1900; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space and concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Partial chain-link fencing; Cleared lot; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, with bedrooms located on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; An additional full bathroom noted (level: second) — two full bathrooms total
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Atkinson Academy (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 327 students, 88% FRL); Westport Middle (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 1,177 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 141 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.74%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 N 27th St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,540 (-6%)	3mo	$100,000	$65	66
107 N 38th St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,649 (+0%)	8mo	$145,000	$88	60
2429 Griffiths Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,645 (+0%)	4mo	$90,000	$55	59
2715 W Market St	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,735 (+6%)	8mo	$139,000	$80	59
405 N 38th St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,616 (-2%)	7mo	$190,000	$118	58
114 S 33rd St	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,453 (-12%)	4mo	$110,000	$76	52
212 N 38th St	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,747 (+6%)	12mo	$189,900	$109	46
2333 Duncan St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,480 (-10%)	5mo	$83,750	$57	45
218 S 25th St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,523 (-7%)	10mo	$130,000	$85	40
2915 Portland Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+10%)	8mo	$80,000	$44	39
2529 W Jefferson St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-9%)	11mo	$28,500	$19	38
3424 W Muhammad Ali Blvd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (-9%)	12mo	$154,000	$104	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $76,685
• Equity at exit: $53,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.5%
• Equity multiple: 12.00×
• Total profit: $181,769
• Equity at exit: $114,624

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $278/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $452

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $787	-5% $770	+0% $754	+5% $737	+10% $720
Rent	-10% $643	-5% $698	+0% $754	+5% $809	+10% $865
Rate	-1.0pp $783	-0.5pp $769	base $754	+0.5pp $738	+1.0pp $723

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 N 26th St Louisville, KY	5.0	2.0	1538	$1,700	$1.11	25d	1	0.42mi
2529 W Main St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	25d	1	0.49mi
212 N 25th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$895	$0.81	25d	1	0.52mi
2508 W Main St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,500	$1.13	25d	1	0.55mi
2906 Montgomery St Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,060	$0.92	25d	1	0.69mi
3901 Jewell Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,140	$1.07	22d	1	0.74mi
2506 Montgomery St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,295	$1.20	5d	4	0.75mi
652 N 29th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1127	$1,350	$1.20	18d	1	0.76mi
127 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,570	$1.05	5d	1	0.78mi
430 S 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1288	$1,400	$1.09	25d	1	0.79mi
106 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,220	$0.92	5d	1	0.81mi
2319 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1644	$1,300	$0.79	17d	1	0.88mi
120 N 20th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,400	$1.08	25d	1	0.97mi
409 N 20th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	5d	1	0.98mi
247 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,305	$1.20	21d	1	1.03mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	22d	1	1.05mi
1919 Baird St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,100	$0.73	17d	1	1.08mi
627 S 38th St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,349	$1.04	17d	1	1.09mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	25d	1	1.16mi
628 S 39th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,220	$0.84	17d	1	1.18mi
4129 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,500	$1.23	3d	1	1.19mi
737 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1356	$1,595	$1.18	25d	1	1.20mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	5d	1	1.29mi
803 S 35th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1486	$1,350	$0.91	25d	1	1.30mi
820 Hazel St Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,395	$0.75	4d	1	1.30mi
3909 W Broadway Louisville, KY	5.0	2.0	2000	$1,745	$0.87	17d	1	1.37mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$895	$0.78	22d	1	1.42mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit A Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$940	$0.82	25d	1	1.42mi
1810 Magazine St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1248	$1,450	$1.16	12d	1	1.42mi
848 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,450	$1.38	25d	1	1.46mi
2711 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,100	$0.95	25d	1	1.47mi
722 S 40th St Unit NA Louisville, KY	4.0	2.5	1556	$1,700	$1.09	5d	1	1.47mi
2416 Garland Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,600	$1.37	25d	1	1.48mi
823 S 38th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	5d	1	1.48mi
858 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	5.0	1.0	2228	$2,100	$0.94	18d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-16
   price $59,000
4. 2026-04-14
   status Active
5. 2026-02-23
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-27
   price $60,000
7. 2025-12-27
   listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $278 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $507 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$229/yr (+$19/mo · 82.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$278
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,350
• − Management: −$1,350
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $8,579
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,059
• After-tax cash flow: $6,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $59,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-23 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $60,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-27 Listed $65,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $278 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.