9714 Bay View Dr · Live Oak, TX 78239

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1978 7,562 sqft lot $139/sqft · 14% below area Est $219k · 14% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price reduced! With a brand-new foundation and a transferable warranty for extra peace of mind, this home is a great opportunity to make your own. It just needs a few cosmetic updates. The smart layout includes split bedrooms for privacy, a covered patio ideal for relaxing, and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor fun. While the interior could use fresh paint and some updates, it's a blank canvas ready for your style and vision. Schedule a showing today and bring your best offer.

Key facts

• Roomy backyard
• Nine years old roof
• Covered patio

Tags

• COMPLETED FOUNDATION WORK
• TRANSFERABLE WARRANTY
• COVERED PATIO
• ROOMY BACKYARD
• NINE YEARS OLD ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-849/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Live Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#211 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Miller Point El (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 606 students, 79% FRL); Judson Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,259 students, 70% FRL); Judson H S (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,666 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,528 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.60%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,252
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -13.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6747 Sunlit Pass	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+2%)	3mo	$209,000	$151	91
6747 Mesa Glade	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+2%)	14mo	$217,000	$157	81
9511 New World	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-8%)	5mo	$195,000	$155	74
6514 Ithaca Fls	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+2%)	4mo	$264,900	$192	67
9713 Sandy Ridge Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-9%)	2mo	$225,000	$182	63
9934 Hawk Vlg	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-4%)	2mo	$218,000	$166	63
6430 Ithaca Fls	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+12%)	1mo	$170,000	$112	52
10274 King Robert	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+12%)	3mo	$345,125	$227	52
6411 Prince Howard	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+12%)	6mo	$322,990	$212	51
7115 Whittney	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,209 (-11%)	10mo	$217,000	$179	42
7107 Comanche Ridge Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+6%)	19mo	$210,000	$146	41
6815 Buckley	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+12%)	6mo	$130,000	$85	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-39,841
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-58,682
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78239

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,418/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,715

Max offer price $176,501

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-17	+0% $-71	+5% $-124	+10% $-178
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-135	+0% $-71	+5% $-7	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-23	base $-71	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9410 Fulwood Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,425	$1.18	24d	1	0.16mi
9711 Arcade Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,299	$1.07	46d	1	0.24mi
6635 Barton Rock Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,600	$1.15	0d	1	0.26mi
6811 Evercrest Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1582	$2,100	$1.33	26d	1	0.39mi
9535 Apple Ridge Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,638	$1.02	5d	1	0.48mi
6918 Crestway Rd Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,395	$1.14	0d	1	0.49mi
6918 Crestway Rd Unit 4 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1261	$1,420	$1.13	0d	1	0.49mi
9527 Apple Ridge Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,575	$0.98	0d	1	0.49mi
6607 Shadden Oaks San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,800	$1.18	26d	1	0.49mi
6926 Crestway Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,345	$1.02	46d	1	0.51mi
6934 Crestway Rd #2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,395	$1.14	0d	1	0.53mi
8818 Bridington San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$2,100	$1.16	16d	1	0.55mi
9426 Apple Ridge Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	46d	1	0.55mi
9426 Apple Ridge Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,495	$1.22	12d	1	0.55mi
9426 Apple Ridge Ln Unit 303 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1231	$1,400	$1.14	46d	1	0.55mi
9426 Apple Ridge Ln Unit 104 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,495	$1.22	10d	1	0.57mi
7239 Converse Ridge Ln Unit 703 Windcrest, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,500	$1.22	26d	1	0.57mi
7239 Converse Ridge Ln Unit 603 Windcrest, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,450	$1.18	14d	1	0.57mi
7110 Ridge Port Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,600	$1.01	14d	1	0.60mi
6406 Ithaca Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1508	$1,500	$0.99	13d	1	0.61mi
9426 Apple Ridge Ln Unit 503 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,600	$1.31	17d	1	0.61mi
9426 Apple Ridge Ln Unit 503 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,395	$1.14	6d	1	0.61mi
6427 Ithaca Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,595	$1.21	26d	1	0.63mi
6427 Ithaca Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,595	$1.21	10d	1	0.63mi
6527 Ithaca Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1528	$1,850	$1.21	6d	1	0.63mi
6527 Ithaca Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1528	$1,850	$1.21	0d	1	0.63mi
9034 Glen Shadow Dr Unit 38 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,645	$1.34	0d	1	0.64mi
9034 Glen Shadow Dr Unit 34 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,645	$1.34	26d	1	0.64mi
9034 Glen Shadow Dr Unit 27 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,550	$1.27	6d	1	0.64mi
9034 Glen Shadow Dr Unit 25 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,500	$1.22	0d	1	0.64mi
9034 Glen Shadow Dr Unit 13 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,645	$1.34	46d	1	0.64mi
9034 Glen Shadow Dr Unit 27 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,550	$1.27	0d	1	0.64mi
7106 Comanche Rdg Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,750	$1.10	26d	1	0.65mi
7347 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,604	$1.62	6d	1	0.65mi
10527 Sonora Sunset San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,599	$1.01	10d	1	0.66mi
10527 Sonora Sunset San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,599	$1.01	22d	1	0.66mi
6503 Ithaca Frst San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,695	$1.04	46d	1	0.68mi
7461 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,788	$2.05	0d	27	0.70mi
6923 Glen Fair San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1632	$1,725	$1.06	10d	1	0.76mi
9034 (15/16) Glen Shadow Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,572	$1.28	0d	8	0.79mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $189,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Price Change 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Price Change 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Price Change 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Price Change 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Price Change 101 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    price $197,000 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Price reduced! With a brand-new foundation and a transferable warranty for extra peace of mind, this home is a great opportunity to make your own. It just needs a few cosmetic updates. The smart layout includes split bedrooms for privacy, a covered patio ideal for relaxing, and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor fun. While the interior could use fresh paint and some updates, it's a blank canvas ready for your style and vision. Schedule a showing today and bring your best offer.

17. 2026-02-19
    listed $206,000 New 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Price reduced! With a brand-new foundation and a transferable warranty for extra peace of mind, this home is a great opportunity to make your own. It just needs a few cosmetic updates. The smart layout includes split bedrooms for privacy, a covered patio ideal for relaxing, and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor fun. While the interior could use fresh paint and some updates, it's a blank canvas ready for your style and vision. Schedule a showing today and bring your best offer.

18. 2009-04-02
    soldstatus
19. 1981-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,418 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$41/yr (+$3/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$3,418
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$4,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$976
• After-tax cash flow: $127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — Live Oak

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #5260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,609
• Household income: $70,098
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 488.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 30% Two or more races 20% Black 16% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.13%
• Current HPI: 242.1272
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $197,000 LERA
• 2026-02-19 Listed $206,000 LERA
• 2009-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,418 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.