426 W Cottonwood Ln #82 · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$69,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Manufactured · 214 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $56k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

Key facts

• Hvac 5 yrs old
• Plumbing re-piped
• Sealed roof

Tags

• PLUMBING RE-PIPED
• SEALED ROOF
• LEVELED FLOORING
• REPLACED VAPOR BARRIER
• ADDED INSULATION
• HVAC 5 YRS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 4.0% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $70k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.16%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
426 W Cottonwood Ln #83	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,045 (+2%)	2mo	$78,000	$75	91
450 W Sunwest Dr #111	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,024 (0%)	6mo	$45,000	$44	84
426 W Cottonwood Ln #25	0.02mi	2/2.0	930 (-9%)	8mo	$60,000	$65	78
450 W Sunwest Dr #69	0.31mi	2/2.0	960 (-6%)	5mo	$67,500	$70	71
120 W Oneil Dr #48	0.38mi	2/1.5	980 (-4%)	2mo	$20,000	$20	71
120 W O'neil Dr #58	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+3%)	2mo	$48,999	$46	70
450 W Sunwest Dr #135	0.23mi	2/2.0	960 (-6%)	10mo	$53,000	$55	70
120 W Oneil Dr #71	0.36mi	2/2.0	960 (-6%)	5mo	$38,000	$40	68
1409 N French St #78	0.50mi	2/2.0	968 (-6%)	1mo	$79,000	$82	67
450 W Sunwest Dr #139	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+12%)	6mo	$75,000	$65	58
1451 N Pinal Ave #31	0.29mi	1/1.0 (-1)	900 (-12%)	11mo	$15,000	$17	48
708 W Mcmurray Blvd #38	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (-12%)	8mo	$30,000	$33	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $32,774
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $92,342
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $703	-5% $679	+0% $655	+5% $631	+10% $607
Rent	-10% $541	-5% $598	+0% $655	+5% $712	+10% $769
Rate	-1.0pp $690	-0.5pp $673	base $655	+0.5pp $637	+1.0pp $619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	0.29mi
290 W Viola St Unit 4 Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	16d	1	0.55mi
1550 N Casa Grande Ave Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,199	$1.92	0d	1	0.67mi
701 W 12th St Unit F Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	745	$1,500	$2.01	25d	1	0.74mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	25d	1	0.75mi
1010 N Park Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	920	$1,100	$1.20	14d	1	0.76mi
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	25d	1	0.77mi
1641 N Kadota Ave Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	0d	3	0.77mi
1564 N Morrison Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	871	$956	$1.10	0d	19	0.77mi
416 W 9th St Unit 1 Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	14d	1	0.85mi
300 W 9th St Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	775	$999	$1.29	23d	1	0.85mi
419 W 9th St Apt A Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,199	$1.60	25d	1	0.88mi
803 N Park Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	822	$1,275	$1.55	6d	1	0.93mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	25d	1	0.94mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	6d	1	1.06mi
1113 W Corinthian Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	981	$1,395	$1.42	16d	1	1.18mi
1620 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1090	$2,165	$1.99	0d	1	1.19mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	25d	1	1.25mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	25d	1	1.26mi
1926 N Avenida de Palmas Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,199	$1.08	23d	3	1.28mi
511 N Brown Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	828	$1,150	$1.39	20d	1	1.35mi
1161 E O'Neil Dr Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1144	$1,295	$1.13	0d	13	1.35mi
515 E 4th St Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	795	$850	$1.07	16d	1	1.37mi
504 N Roosevelt Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	921	$1,350	$1.47	19d	1	1.48mi
1936 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,492	$1.44	0d	31	1.48mi
224 E 3rd Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$995	$1.08	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-23
   price $69,900
3. 2025-12-12
   price $72,000
4. 2025-11-10
   price $75,000
5. 2025-09-19
   listed $79,900 Active
6. 2020-08-10
   soldstatus $36,000 Closed 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

7. 2020-06-25
   status Pending 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

8. 2020-05-20
   price $37,500 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

9. 2020-04-27
   price $39,000 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

10. 2020-04-27
    status Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

11. 2019-12-31
    historical 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

12. 2019-11-22
    status Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

13. 2019-11-21
    status Pending 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

14. 2019-11-07
    price $39,900 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

15. 2019-10-30
    listed $45,000 Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    WHAT A NICE PROPERTY! This 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home has already been updated, so you can just move right in. New A/C-Furnace, and flooring. Kitchen cabinets have been updated. 2 outdoor spaces to sit out on with your morning coffee or evening beverage. In the Master bedroom there is a new barn door leading in to the master bath. Park has a clubhouse and some fun activities. 55+ community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,383
• − Management: −$1,383
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $7,175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,722
• After-tax cash flow: $6,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+55.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $69,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $72,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $79,900 ARMLS
• 2020-08-10 Sold (MLS) $36,000 ARMLS
• 2020-06-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-05-20 Price Changed $37,500 ARMLS
• 2020-04-27 Price Changed $39,000 ARMLS
• 2020-04-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2019-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-11-22 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2019-11-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-11-07 Price Changed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2019-10-30 Listed $45,000 ARMLS