11947 Noble Wood Village Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $224k · 7% over $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Idlewood Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $273,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Idlewood plan
• Exterior features: Located at 11947 Noble Wood Village Dr, Decker Prairie, TX 77354

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Idlewood plan); Living area approximately 1418

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($392/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,250 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,044
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11995 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	1mo	$215,340	$152	95
11990 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-1%)	1mo	$224,990	$160	94
12010 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-1%)	1mo	$213,040	$151	92
12039 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	0mo	$223,590	$158	90
11986 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	1mo	$222,440	$157	89
11962 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	0mo	$224,990	$177	81
11982 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	0mo	$224,990	$177	79
11736 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	1mo	$212,440	$167	78
11677 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+11%)	0mo	$256,990	$163	74
12002 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	2mo	$191,140	$150	73
11998 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+13%)	1mo	$232,040	$144	67
11987 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+13%)	1mo	$218,140	$136	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $127,106
• Equity at exit: $216,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $362,374
• Equity at exit: $466,248

Cash invested: $67,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,141

Max offer price $239,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $116	+0% $33	+5% $-50	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-54	+0% $33	+5% $119	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $94	base $33	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,998
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	45d	1	0.86mi
32626A Karen Dr Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $239,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 636-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $232,990 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $232,990 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 415-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $273,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$869
• After-tax cash flow: $1,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B