2572 S willow Ave #201 · Fresno, CA 93875

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,142 sqft · Manufactured · 225 Days on market

Built 2014 Good condition $123/sqft · 18% above area Est $118k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is located in The Willows of Santiago, an all-ages, pet-friendly park with a peaceful duck pond, clubhouse, pool, and spa. The open-concept layout features a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen with a gas range, refrigerator, freezer, filtered water, and microwave. There's also an indoor laundry room with stacked washer and dryer included. Built in 2014, this home offers comfort, convenience, and community living. Applicants must be approved by the park before submitting an offer. Call your favorite Realtor today for a private showing!

Key facts

• Pet friendly park
• Duck pond
• Clubhouse

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• PET FRIENDLY PARK
• DUCK POND
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.84%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,165
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 18.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2575 S Willow Ave #13	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+9%)	1mo	$130,000	$104	74
2575 S Willow Ave #156	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (+0%)	12mo	$95,000	$83	74
2572 S Willow Ave #237	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-8%)	11mo	$125,000	$118	73
2575 S Willow Ave #165	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	12mo	$42,000	$35	70
2575 S Willow Ave #164	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+9%)	1mo	$147,000	$118	68
2575 S Willow Ave #237	0.10mi	3/1.8 (+1)	1,056 (-8%)	11mo	$125,000	$118	68
2575 S Willow Ave #240	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	22mo	$91,500	$87	60
2575 S Willow Ave #240	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	22mo	$91,500	$87	60
2575 S Willow Ave #197	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	20mo	$75,000	$60	60
2575 S Willow #140	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+14%)	2mo	$140,000	$108	59
2575 S Willow #108	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+9%)	22mo	$150,000	$121	51
2575 S Willow Ave #128	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+12%)	21mo	$120,000	$94	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $26,961
• Equity at exit: $62,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $81,910
• Equity at exit: $97,014

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93875

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $207	+0% $158	+5% $110	+10% $61
Rent	-10% $46	-5% $102	+0% $158	+5% $214	+10% $271
Rate	-1.0pp $229	-0.5pp $194	base $158	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4760 E Butler Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,320	$1.35	2d	9	1.39mi
2075 S Hayston Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	845	$1,550	$1.83	2d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-01-23
    status Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is located in The Willows of Santiago, an all-ages, pet-friendly park with a peaceful duck pond, clubhouse, pool, and spa. The open-concept layout features a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen with a gas range, refrigerator, freezer, filtered water, and microwave. There's also an indoor laundry room with stacked washer and dryer included. Built in 2014, this home offers comfort, convenience, and community living. Applicants must be approved by the park before submitting an offer. Call your favorite Realtor today for a private showing!

16. 2025-12-30
    status Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is located in The Willows of Santiago, an all-ages, pet-friendly park with a peaceful duck pond, clubhouse, pool, and spa. The open-concept layout features a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen with a gas range, refrigerator, freezer, filtered water, and microwave. There's also an indoor laundry room with stacked washer and dryer included. Built in 2014, this home offers comfort, convenience, and community living. Applicants must be approved by the park before submitting an offer. Call your favorite Realtor today for a private showing!

17. 2025-10-09
    listed $140,000 Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is located in The Willows of Santiago, an all-ages, pet-friendly park with a peaceful duck pond, clubhouse, pool, and spa. The open-concept layout features a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen with a gas range, refrigerator, freezer, filtered water, and microwave. There's also an indoor laundry room with stacked washer and dryer included. Built in 2014, this home offers comfort, convenience, and community living. Applicants must be approved by the park before submitting an offer. Call your favorite Realtor today for a private showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$84
• After-tax cash flow: $1,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready manufactured home in The Willows of Santiago offers a spacious and comfortable living experience with modern amenities and a peaceful community setting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Both Replace the outdoor light fixture — A new light fixture can improve the home's curb appeal and functionality.
• Both Install a new outdoor water feature — A water feature can add aesthetic value and attract more buyers/renters.
• Both Add a small garden bed — A small garden bed can enhance the landscaping and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Replace the outdoor light fixture — A new light fixture can improve the home's curb appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Install a new outdoor water feature — A water feature can add aesthetic value and attract more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add a small garden bed — A small garden bed can enhance the landscaping and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-12-30 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $140,000 CRMLS