6029 Capitol Dr · Midway, FL 32563

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 828 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1997 0.32 ac lot Est $127k · 30% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gulf Breeze property with the opportunity to fix and occupy, flip, or use the nearly 1/3 acre of land to build a new home. No HOA gives the ability to park your boat or RV. The East Bay Heights community has numerous newer homes which have been built in recent years and is adjacent to the new Soundside High School, which is currently under construction. The yard building has plumbing and electricity for clothes washer and dryer. Conveniently located a short drive to both Pensacola and Navarre Beaches, military bases, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Newly renovated
• New roof

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW MINI SPLIT SYSTEM
• NEW LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• NEW TILED SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $165k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.03%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,684
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6015 Capitol Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0	924 (+12%)	11mo	$95,000	$103	69
5827 Capitol Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-5%)	10mo	$65,000	$83	62
2015 America Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	924 (+12%)	14mo	$141,000	$153	58
1879 Justice Cir	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	854 (+3%)	10mo	$130,500	$153	48
5594 Charter Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0	924 (+12%)	9mo	$140,000	$152	35
5616 Monument Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	924 (+12%)	17mo	$147,000	$159	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $13,368
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $72,872
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32563

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,281

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $625	+0% $579	+5% $532	+10% $485
Rent	-10% $420	-5% $499	+0% $579	+5% $658	+10% $738
Rate	-1.0pp $662	-0.5pp $621	base $579	+0.5pp $536	+1.0pp $492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $165,000 Active
17. 2026-04-21
    historical
18. 2026-03-24
    price $160,000
19. 2025-09-22
    price $175,000
20. 2025-07-22
    listed $185,000 Active
21. 2025-04-28
    soldstatus $80,000
22. 2025-04-25
    soldstatus $80,000 Sold 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Gulf Breeze property with the opportunity to fix and occupy, flip, or use the nearly 1/3 acre of land to build a new home. No HOA gives the ability to park your boat or RV. The East Bay Heights community has numerous newer homes which have been built in recent years and is adjacent to the new Soundside High School, which is currently under construction. The yard building has plumbing and electricity for clothes washer and dryer. Conveniently located a short drive to both Pensacola and Navarre Beaches, military bases, shopping, and dining.

23. 2025-04-25
    soldstatus $80,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Gulf Breeze property with the opportunity to fix and occupy, flip, or use the nearly 1/3 acre of land to build a new home. No HOA gives the ability to park your boat or RV. The East Bay Heights community has numerous newer homes which have been built in recent years and is adjacent to the new Soundside High School, which is currently under construction. The yard building has plumbing and electricity for clothes washer and dryer. Conveniently located a short drive to both Pensacola and Navarre Beaches, military bases, shopping, and dining.

24. 2025-03-27
    status Pending 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Gulf Breeze property with the opportunity to fix and occupy, flip, or use the nearly 1/3 acre of land to build a new home. No HOA gives the ability to park your boat or RV. The East Bay Heights community has numerous newer homes which have been built in recent years and is adjacent to the new Soundside High School, which is currently under construction. The yard building has plumbing and electricity for clothes washer and dryer. Conveniently located a short drive to both Pensacola and Navarre Beaches, military bases, shopping, and dining.

25. 2025-03-27
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Gulf Breeze property with the opportunity to fix and occupy, flip, or use the nearly 1/3 acre of land to build a new home. No HOA gives the ability to park your boat or RV. The East Bay Heights community has numerous newer homes which have been built in recent years and is adjacent to the new Soundside High School, which is currently under construction. The yard building has plumbing and electricity for clothes washer and dryer. Conveniently located a short drive to both Pensacola and Navarre Beaches, military bases, shopping, and dining.

26. 2025-03-27
    listed $80,000 Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Gulf Breeze property with the opportunity to fix and occupy, flip, or use the nearly 1/3 acre of land to build a new home. No HOA gives the ability to park your boat or RV. The East Bay Heights community has numerous newer homes which have been built in recent years and is adjacent to the new Soundside High School, which is currently under construction. The yard building has plumbing and electricity for clothes washer and dryer. Conveniently located a short drive to both Pensacola and Navarre Beaches, military bases, shopping, and dining.

27. 2025-03-27
    listed $80,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Gulf Breeze property with the opportunity to fix and occupy, flip, or use the nearly 1/3 acre of land to build a new home. No HOA gives the ability to park your boat or RV. The East Bay Heights community has numerous newer homes which have been built in recent years and is adjacent to the new Soundside High School, which is currently under construction. The yard building has plumbing and electricity for clothes washer and dryer. Conveniently located a short drive to both Pensacola and Navarre Beaches, military bases, shopping, and dining.

28. 1997-09-04
    soldstatus $9,000
29. 1993-07-01
    soldstatus $157,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 46.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $4,494
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,079
• After-tax cash flow: $5,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,364
• Household income: $100,396
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.78%
• Current HPI: 278.9852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $165,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $160,000 PARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $175,000 PARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $185,000 PARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-25 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NAMLS
• 2025-04-25 Sold (MLS) $80,000 PARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Pending — PARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Pending — NAMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $80,000 NAMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $80,000 PARMLS
• 1997-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records
• 1993-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $157,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $938 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.