18235 Lahore Rd · Orange, VA 22960

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1951 0.39 ac lot Est $273k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 BR 1 BA home is ideal for 1st time home buyer or investment opportunity. Fenced in back yard for animals. Plenty of storage in 2 outbuildings. LR, kitchen 2 bedrooms in house. Vacant go show. This is home will not last long. Contact Keith for showing/offers.

Key facts

• Public water service
• Roof three years old
• Two storage sheds

Tags

• ROOF THREE YEARS OLD
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• PARTIAL CONCRETE FLOOR
• PARTIALLY COVERED SIDE PORCH
• PUBLIC WATER SERVICE
• SHARED SEPTIC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Other utilities
• Home design: Detached single-story home; Stick-built construction; Block foundation
• Construction: Built with stick-built construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.15 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: First-floor kitchen; First-floor living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.0% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#151 in VA, #4,842 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Unionville Elementary (230 students, 69% FRL); Prospect Heights Middle (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C+, #213 of 342 statewide, top 63%, 456 students, 68% FRL); Orange County High (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,476 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 34% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $150k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,725 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,896
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18639 Lahore Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (+11%)	20mo	$302,000	$328	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,842
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,543
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22960

• Home prices YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,239

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $223	+0% $180	+5% $138	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $64	-5% $122	+0% $180	+5% $238	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $218	base $180	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $150,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$470/yr (+$39/mo · 61.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$68
• After-tax cash flow: $2,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,086
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2147
• State rank: #71 of 131 in VA

Livability — Orange

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #4842

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,877

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,758 people
• By 2030: 40,411 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 43,477 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 45,856 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 51,067 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 51,387 · +32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 17% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.2% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+14.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.60%
• Current HPI: 350.4024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $150,000 CAAR
• 2008-06-25 Sold (MLS) $98,000 MRIS
• 2008-05-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-02-01 Listed $105,000 MRIS
• 2007-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-11 Sold (MLS) $148,000 MRIS
• 2006-11-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-06-09 Listed $145,000 MRIS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $760 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.