104 Chelsea Dr #13 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$89,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 938 sqft · Condo public records · 193 Days on market

Built 1980 $96/sqft · at area comps Est $94k · at est. $348/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute & clean condo across from the pickleball/tennis courts & Cool Pool Cafe. Established Short Term Rental , comes fully Furnished plus linens, kitchen-ware, etc. 2 Bedrooms/1.5 baths. Monthly dues for Fairfield Bay Community Club are $220 a month that gives you access to 3 swimming pools, trash pickup, & city sewer. The monthly condo dues are $128/month which includes grounds maintenance, termite policy, basic tv, & exterior maintenance. Walking distance to Cool Pool/Pickle Ball Courts/tennis Courts/ & Cool Pool Restaurant. Also ATV trails, bike trails, hiking trails, playground, & Putt Putt close by.

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Swimming pools
• Tennis courts

Tags

• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS
• SWIMMING POOLS
• FULLY FURNISHED
• ATV TRAILS
• BIKE TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 5.7% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 263 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $194 of equity ($622 loan paydown + $-428 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.00%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,981
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -4.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Dr	0.72mi	2/1.5	1,033 (+10%)	18mo	$25,000	$24	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $26,297
• Equity at exit: $23,983

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $72,824
• Equity at exit: $27,186

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $325/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$348
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,119

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $533	-5% $508	+0% $483	+5% $457	+10% $432
Rent	-10% $346	-5% $414	+0% $483	+5% $551	+10% $619
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $505	base $483	+0.5pp $459	+1.0pp $436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $348 · $4,176/yr
• Likely covers: sewertrashlandscapingexterior maint.pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $89,900 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   remarks 675-char remark
7. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $89,900 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Price Change 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Price Change 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    pricestatusdays on market $89,900 Price Change 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,900 Back on Market 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,900 Back on Market 179 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $94,900 Back on Market 178 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 174 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 173 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 172 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 171 DOM
19. 2026-04-24
    price $94,900 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    Super cute & clean condo across from the pickleball/tennis courts & Cool Pool Cafe. Established Short Term Rental , comes fully Furnished plus linens, kitchen-ware, etc. 2 Bedrooms/1.5 baths. Monthly dues for Fairfield Bay Community Club are $220 a month that gives you access to 3 swimming pools, trash pickup, & city sewer. The monthly condo dues are $128/month which includes grounds maintenance, termite policy, basic tv, & exterior maintenance. Walking distance to Cool Pool/Pickle Ball Courts/tennis Courts/ & Cool Pool Restaurant. Also ATV trails, bike trails, hiking trails, playground, & Putt Putt close by.

20. 2025-12-08
    listed $105,000 New Listing 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    Super cute & clean condo across from the pickleball/tennis courts & Cool Pool Cafe. Established Short Term Rental , comes fully Furnished plus linens, kitchen-ware, etc. 2 Bedrooms/1.5 baths. Monthly dues for Fairfield Bay Community Club are $220 a month that gives you access to 3 swimming pools, trash pickup, & city sewer. The monthly condo dues are $128/month which includes grounds maintenance, termite policy, basic tv, & exterior maintenance. Walking distance to Cool Pool/Pickle Ball Courts/tennis Courts/ & Cool Pool Restaurant. Also ATV trails, bike trails, hiking trails, playground, & Putt Putt close by.

21. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus $90,000
22. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus $73,000
23. 2015-06-24
    soldstatus $35,000
24. 2010-10-01
    soldstatus $11,000
25. 2010-06-28
    soldstatus $6,595
26. 1998-11-02
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $325 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $575 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$250/yr (+$21/mo · 76.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$325
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − HOA: −$4,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,835
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $4,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+374.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $94,900 CARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $105,000 CARMLS
• 2023-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $6,595 Public Records
• 1998-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $325 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.