2250 Old Canton Pike · Cadiz, KY 42211

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1969 4.79 ac lot $112/sqft · 11% below area Est $282k · 11% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living but close to town. This spacious home is situated on 4.79+/- acres with a pond. Sun Room is not included in SF as it wasn't listed on PVA card. It adds over 500 s/f to the main level. Buyer to verify s/f. If you're ready for country living, this is ready for new owners. Sump pump in basement and handicapped accessible in the rear of the home. New roof installed in June 2025. Propane tank rented from Fortner Gas.

Key facts

• 4.79 acres
• Pond
• Sun room

Tags

• 4.79 ACRES
• POND
• SUN ROOM
• HANDICAPPED ACCESSIBLE
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-544/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,767 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,935
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -11.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,534
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,174
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42211

• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $604/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,855

Max offer price $241,986

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $25	+0% $-45	+5% $-116	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-116	+0% $-45	+5% $26	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $18	base $-45	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Country living but close to town. This spacious home is situated on 4.79+/- acres with a pond. Sun Room is not included in SF as it wasn't listed on PVA card. It adds over 500 s/f to the main level. Buyer to verify s/f. If you're ready for country living, this is ready for new owners. Sump pump in basement and handicapped accessible in the rear of the home. New roof installed in June 2025. Propane tank rented from Fortner Gas.

2. 2026-03-31
   price $250,000 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Country living but close to town. This spacious home is situated on 4.79+/- acres with a pond. Sun Room is not included in SF as it wasn't listed on PVA card. It adds over 500 s/f to the main level. Buyer to verify s/f. If you're ready for country living, this is ready for new owners. Sump pump in basement and handicapped accessible in the rear of the home. New roof installed in June 2025. Propane tank rented from Fortner Gas.

3. 2026-01-05
   price $285,000 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Country living but close to town. This spacious home is situated on 4.79+/- acres with a pond. Sun Room is not included in SF as it wasn't listed on PVA card. It adds over 500 s/f to the main level. Buyer to verify s/f. If you're ready for country living, this is ready for new owners. Sump pump in basement and handicapped accessible in the rear of the home. New roof installed in June 2025. Propane tank rented from Fortner Gas.

4. 2025-11-13
   listed $299,900 Active 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Country living but close to town. This spacious home is situated on 4.79+/- acres with a pond. Sun Room is not included in SF as it wasn't listed on PVA card. It adds over 500 s/f to the main level. Buyer to verify s/f. If you're ready for country living, this is ready for new owners. Sump pump in basement and handicapped accessible in the rear of the home. New roof installed in June 2025. Propane tank rented from Fortner Gas.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,546/yr (+$129/mo · 256.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$604
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,010
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,202
• After-tax cash flow: $658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trigg County
• NCES district ID: 2105580
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,636
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7100
• State rank: #90 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cadiz

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #16772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,912

Population outlook (Trigg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,071 people
• By 2030: 13,950 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 13,575 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 13,065 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 11,990 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 10,802 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trigg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.2% · R 75.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.15%
• Current HPI: 130.8351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $250,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $285,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $299,900 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $604 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.