9240 Highway 31 · Calera, AL 35040

$156,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1957 0.49 ac lot $97/sqft · 30% below area Est $221k · 30% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern updates in this charming 1,600+ SF home. Situated on a generous . 5+/- acre lot, this property offers the ideal balance of convenience and wooded privacy. Whether you are looking for a move-in-ready starter home or a solid investment opportunity, this property has it all! This home has been thoughtfully refreshed to offer a modern living experience: Hardwoods in the living/bonus room, hallway and bedrooms have been beautifully refinished. New LVP flooring installed in the kitchen and plush new carpet in the den. The updated kitchen includes generous cabinets which have been refinished, and new paint for a bright, clean look. A completely updated bathroom with modern finishes. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included with the sale! Outdoor is a level, half-acre lot providing a serene, wooded backdrop and plenty of space for outdoor activities. Included is a large outdoor deck, perfect for a future above ground pool.

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• Wooded privacy
• New flooring

Tags

• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• NEW FLOORING
• REFINISHED ORIGINAL HARDWOODS
• REFINISHED KITCHEN CABINETS
• WOODED PRIVACY
• BEAUTIFUL OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.5% in Calera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,960 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.06%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,305
• List price: $156,000
• Delta: -29.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 Cattail Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-7%)	1mo	$219,900	$147	62
354 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (-4%)	1mo	$306,987	$200	59
0000353 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,590 (-1%)	9mo	$299,900	$189	56
207 Pamela Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-8%)	8mo	$249,500	$169	53
00342 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-10%)	6mo	$259,900	$179	52
277 Shawnda Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+10%)	3mo	$155,000	$87	49
350 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-13%)	2mo	$264,000	$189	48
385 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (-4%)	9mo	$303,718	$198	44
00373 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-14%)	3mo	$260,000	$187	42
8661 Us Highway 31	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+11%)	7mo	$235,000	$131	39
381 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-11%)	9mo	$272,789	$191	39
00365 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-14%)	7mo	$272,809	$196	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,819
• Equity at exit: $23,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $44,043
• Equity at exit: $13,488

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,749 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $711/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,193

Max offer price $156,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1340	$4,150	$3.10	1d	1	0.25mi
100 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,585	$1.27	19d	1	0.38mi
269 Shiloh Creek Dr Calera, AL	4.0	2.0	1906	$1,775	$0.93	1d	1	0.46mi
172 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,675	$0.90	1d	1	0.50mi
188 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,595	$0.86	2d	1	0.51mi
207 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1912	$1,630	$0.85	2d	1	0.55mi
116 Brookside Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1801	$1,695	$0.94	43d	1	0.57mi
248 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,595	$0.86	23d	1	0.57mi
252 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,695	$0.91	1d	1	0.57mi
279 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1904	$1,710	$0.90	1d	1	0.61mi
34 Dunwar Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,731	$0.98	19d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $156,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $156,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $156,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $156,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $156,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $156,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $156,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $156,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    status Active 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Experience the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern updates in this charming 1,600+ SF home. Situated on a generous . 5+/- acre lot, this property offers the ideal balance of convenience and wooded privacy. Whether you are looking for a move-in-ready starter home or a solid investment opportunity, this property has it all! This home has been thoughtfully refreshed to offer a modern living experience: Hardwoods in the living/bonus room, hallway and bedrooms have been beautifully refinished. New LVP flooring installed in the kitchen and plush new carpet in the den. The updated kitchen includes generous cabinets which have been refinished, and new paint for a bright, clean look. A completely updated bathroom with modern finishes. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included with the sale! Outdoor is a level, half-acre lot providing a serene, wooded backdrop and plenty of space for outdoor activities. Included is a large outdoor deck, perfect for a future above ground pool.

17. 2026-04-16
    historical Contingent 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Experience the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern updates in this charming 1,600+ SF home. Situated on a generous . 5+/- acre lot, this property offers the ideal balance of convenience and wooded privacy. Whether you are looking for a move-in-ready starter home or a solid investment opportunity, this property has it all! This home has been thoughtfully refreshed to offer a modern living experience: Hardwoods in the living/bonus room, hallway and bedrooms have been beautifully refinished. New LVP flooring installed in the kitchen and plush new carpet in the den. The updated kitchen includes generous cabinets which have been refinished, and new paint for a bright, clean look. A completely updated bathroom with modern finishes. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included with the sale! Outdoor is a level, half-acre lot providing a serene, wooded backdrop and plenty of space for outdoor activities. Included is a large outdoor deck, perfect for a future above ground pool.

18. 2026-03-17
    price $156,000 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Experience the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern updates in this charming 1,600+ SF home. Situated on a generous . 5+/- acre lot, this property offers the ideal balance of convenience and wooded privacy. Whether you are looking for a move-in-ready starter home or a solid investment opportunity, this property has it all! This home has been thoughtfully refreshed to offer a modern living experience: Hardwoods in the living/bonus room, hallway and bedrooms have been beautifully refinished. New LVP flooring installed in the kitchen and plush new carpet in the den. The updated kitchen includes generous cabinets which have been refinished, and new paint for a bright, clean look. A completely updated bathroom with modern finishes. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included with the sale! Outdoor is a level, half-acre lot providing a serene, wooded backdrop and plenty of space for outdoor activities. Included is a large outdoor deck, perfect for a future above ground pool.

19. 2026-03-17
    status Active 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Experience the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern updates in this charming 1,600+ SF home. Situated on a generous . 5+/- acre lot, this property offers the ideal balance of convenience and wooded privacy. Whether you are looking for a move-in-ready starter home or a solid investment opportunity, this property has it all! This home has been thoughtfully refreshed to offer a modern living experience: Hardwoods in the living/bonus room, hallway and bedrooms have been beautifully refinished. New LVP flooring installed in the kitchen and plush new carpet in the den. The updated kitchen includes generous cabinets which have been refinished, and new paint for a bright, clean look. A completely updated bathroom with modern finishes. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included with the sale! Outdoor is a level, half-acre lot providing a serene, wooded backdrop and plenty of space for outdoor activities. Included is a large outdoor deck, perfect for a future above ground pool.

20. 2026-02-20
    historical 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Experience the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern updates in this charming 1,600+ SF home. Situated on a generous . 5+/- acre lot, this property offers the ideal balance of convenience and wooded privacy. Whether you are looking for a move-in-ready starter home or a solid investment opportunity, this property has it all! This home has been thoughtfully refreshed to offer a modern living experience: Hardwoods in the living/bonus room, hallway and bedrooms have been beautifully refinished. New LVP flooring installed in the kitchen and plush new carpet in the den. The updated kitchen includes generous cabinets which have been refinished, and new paint for a bright, clean look. A completely updated bathroom with modern finishes. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included with the sale! Outdoor is a level, half-acre lot providing a serene, wooded backdrop and plenty of space for outdoor activities. Included is a large outdoor deck, perfect for a future above ground pool.

21. 2026-02-19
    listed $152,000 Active 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Experience the perfect blend of space, comfort, and modern updates in this charming 1,600+ SF home. Situated on a generous . 5+/- acre lot, this property offers the ideal balance of convenience and wooded privacy. Whether you are looking for a move-in-ready starter home or a solid investment opportunity, this property has it all! This home has been thoughtfully refreshed to offer a modern living experience: Hardwoods in the living/bonus room, hallway and bedrooms have been beautifully refinished. New LVP flooring installed in the kitchen and plush new carpet in the den. The updated kitchen includes generous cabinets which have been refinished, and new paint for a bright, clean look. A completely updated bathroom with modern finishes. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included with the sale! Outdoor is a level, half-acre lot providing a serene, wooded backdrop and plenty of space for outdoor activities. Included is a large outdoor deck, perfect for a future above ground pool.

22. 2025-08-29
    price $154,750
23. 2025-08-13
    price $155,000
24. 2025-07-27
    price $160,000
25. 2025-07-08
    price $165,000
26. 2025-05-31
    price $169,000
27. 2025-05-15
    price $172,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $711 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $711 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$711
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,679
• − Management: −$1,679
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable income: $2,859
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$686
• After-tax cash flow: $4,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $156,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-20 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $152,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $154,750 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $155,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $160,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $165,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $169,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $172,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $711 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.