1207 Apache Cir · Tavares, FL 32778

$161,913

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1980 6,100 sqft lot Est $162k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable well maintained home in 55+ community Lake Frances Estates. This neighborhood is centrally located in Tavares, America's Seaplane city and is within minutes of many local amenities, grocery stores and shopping all at your disposal. Enjoy an evening walk around the neighborhood for beautiful views of Lake Frances. Community amenities include a well maintained clubhouse; an indoor and an outdoor swimming pool; a boat ramp and fishing dock to access private Lake Frances, RV storage, a billiards room, a free library, shuffleboard courts to name a few. Call your realtor today for a private tour and make this your home today!

Key facts

• 6,100 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $162k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $162k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tavares Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 61% FRL); Tavares Middle School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 1,070 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,483 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.93%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,568
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1024 Capella Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	5mo	$55,000	$50	81
1209 Apache Cir	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	9mo	$128,000	$111	77
1424 Mohawk Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+10%)	2mo	$195,000	$168	76
1408 Skyline Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+8%)	8mo	$92,000	$80	74
1687 Elkhart Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-5%)	6mo	$160,000	$160	71
1681 Elkhart Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,125 (+6%)	7mo	$172,000	$153	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,433
• Equity at exit: $24,142

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $12,554
• Equity at exit: $13,999

Cash invested: $45,336 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$849
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,703/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,509

Max offer price $161,913

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $232	+0% $186	+5% $141	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $117	+0% $186	+5% $255	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $228	base $186	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,478
• Closing costs: $4,857
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
807 McLain Ct Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	18d	1	0.37mi
1105 N Rockingham Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	806	$1,650	$2.05	6d	1	0.44mi
743 E Alfred St Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	25d	1	0.57mi
380 Dora Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,399	$1.87	16d	1	0.57mi
542 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,400	$1.72	25d	1	0.57mi
1632 Tudor Ln Unit 1632 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,595	$1.52	19d	1	0.66mi
1403 E Alfred St Unit 200 Tavares, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,000	$2.00	19d	1	0.74mi
2225 Cypress Ct Unit 2C Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1334	$2,000	$1.50	25d	1	0.77mi
2420 Ann Rou Rd Unit 201 Tavares, FL	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,555	$1.55	19d	1	1.20mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	25d	1	1.23mi
2460 Ann Rou Rd Unit 606 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,750	$1.50	19d	1	1.31mi
420 S Lake Ave Lot 1 Tavares, FL	1.0	1.0	1016	$1,200	$1.18	0d	1	1.43mi
2533 Bracknell Forest Trl Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,100	$1.42	4d	1	1.43mi
2551 Bracknell Forest Trl Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,081	$1.40	18d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-01-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-30
   listed $161,913 Active
3. 2023-03-24
   soldstatus $153,000 Closed 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   Adorable well maintained home in 55+ community Lake Frances Estates. This neighborhood is centrally located in Tavares, America's Seaplane city and is within minutes of many local amenities, grocery stores and shopping all at your disposal. Enjoy an evening walk around the neighborhood for beautiful views of Lake Frances. Community amenities include a well maintained clubhouse; an indoor and an outdoor swimming pool; a boat ramp and fishing dock to access private Lake Frances, RV storage, a billiards room, a free library, shuffleboard courts to name a few. Call your realtor today for a private tour and make this your home today!

4. 2023-02-18
   status Pending 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   Adorable well maintained home in 55+ community Lake Frances Estates. This neighborhood is centrally located in Tavares, America's Seaplane city and is within minutes of many local amenities, grocery stores and shopping all at your disposal. Enjoy an evening walk around the neighborhood for beautiful views of Lake Frances. Community amenities include a well maintained clubhouse; an indoor and an outdoor swimming pool; a boat ramp and fishing dock to access private Lake Frances, RV storage, a billiards room, a free library, shuffleboard courts to name a few. Call your realtor today for a private tour and make this your home today!

5. 2023-02-14
   listed $149,900 Active 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   Adorable well maintained home in 55+ community Lake Frances Estates. This neighborhood is centrally located in Tavares, America's Seaplane city and is within minutes of many local amenities, grocery stores and shopping all at your disposal. Enjoy an evening walk around the neighborhood for beautiful views of Lake Frances. Community amenities include a well maintained clubhouse; an indoor and an outdoor swimming pool; a boat ramp and fishing dock to access private Lake Frances, RV storage, a billiards room, a free library, shuffleboard courts to name a few. Call your realtor today for a private tour and make this your home today!

6. 1984-07-01
   soldstatus $43,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,070
• − Property taxes: −$2,703
• − Insurance: −$810
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,710
• Taxable loss: −$308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$74
• After-tax cash flow: $2,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+268.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-30 Listed $161,913 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-24 Sold (MLS) $153,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-14 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,703 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.