200 Burnett Ave #105 · Morgan Hill, CA 95037

$315,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• Schools +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in an all-age community, this move-in-ready manufactured home in Morgan Hill offers an excellent and affordable opportunity with low space rent of just $740. Recently remodeled, the home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, plus a convenient bonus bathroom. Enjoy a spacious backyard filled with mature fruit treesperfect for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining.

Key facts

• Recent remodeling
• Mature fruit trees
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• RECENT REMODELING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• MATURE FRUIT TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (1.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.7% in Morgan Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#34 in CA, #1,188 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Morgan Hill Unified (suburban): math 90% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #9 of 517 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $243k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,662 (1.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.67%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-24,901
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $39,430
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95037

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,756

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19010 Monterey Rd Morgan Hill, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,495	$3.12	23d	1	0.39mi
18730 Miner Ln Morgan Hill, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	707	$2,664	$3.77	1d	3	0.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   pricestatusdays on market $315,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-04-28
   status Pending 367-char remark

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   Located in an all-age community, this move-in-ready manufactured home in Morgan Hill offers an excellent and affordable opportunity with low space rent of just $740. Recently remodeled, the home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, plus a convenient bonus bathroom. Enjoy a spacious backyard filled with mature fruit treesperfect for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining.

6. 2026-04-28
   status Pending (Do Not Show) 367-char remark

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   Located in an all-age community, this move-in-ready manufactured home in Morgan Hill offers an excellent and affordable opportunity with low space rent of just $740. Recently remodeled, the home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, plus a convenient bonus bathroom. Enjoy a spacious backyard filled with mature fruit treesperfect for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining.

7. 2026-04-23
   listed $312,000 Active 367-char remark

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   Located in an all-age community, this move-in-ready manufactured home in Morgan Hill offers an excellent and affordable opportunity with low space rent of just $740. Recently remodeled, the home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, plus a convenient bonus bathroom. Enjoy a spacious backyard filled with mature fruit treesperfect for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining.

8. 2026-04-23
   listed $312,000 Active 367-char remark

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   Located in an all-age community, this move-in-ready manufactured home in Morgan Hill offers an excellent and affordable opportunity with low space rent of just $740. Recently remodeled, the home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, plus a convenient bonus bathroom. Enjoy a spacious backyard filled with mature fruit treesperfect for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining.

9. 2023-06-08
   soldstatus $243,000 Sold
10. 2023-05-05
    status Pending (Do Not Show)
11. 2023-04-20
    listed $249,000 Active
12. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus $208,000 Sold
13. 2022-05-07
    historical Contingent
14. 2022-04-29
    listed $199,500 Active
15. 2007-09-01
    soldstatus $62,500
16. 2007-08-11
    historical
17. 2006-07-15
    listed $67,999
18. 2004-11-23
    historical
19. 2004-11-08
    soldstatus $51,000
20. 2004-09-10
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,973
• − Management: −$2,973
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$1,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$455
• After-tax cash flow: $3,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan Hill Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625830
• Math proficiency: 90% ▲ 51.00%
• Reading proficiency: 90% ▲ 41.00%
• Median HH income: $99,633
• Composite: 80.7/100
• National rank: #45
• State rank: #9 of 517 in CA

Livability — Morgan Hill

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #1188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morgan Hill, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 51,943
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 51,943
• Household income: $163,182
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1261.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 24% Asian 16% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -927.23%
• Current HPI: 279.0096
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.79%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+467.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-28 Pending — MLSListings
• 2026-04-23 Listed $312,000 MLSListings
• 2026-04-23 Listed $312,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-06-08 Sold (MLS) $243,000 MLSListings
• 2023-05-05 Pending — MLSListings
• 2023-04-20 Listed $249,000 MLSListings
• 2022-06-29 Sold (MLS) $208,000 MLSListings
• 2022-05-07 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2022-04-29 Listed $199,500 MLSListings
• 2007-09-01 Sold (MLS) $62,500 MLSListings
• 2007-08-11 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2006-07-15 Listed $67,999 MLSListings
• 2004-11-23 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2004-11-08 Sold (MLS) $51,000 MLSListings
• 2004-09-10 Listed $55,000 MLSListings