15033 SW 26th Ln · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 10,125 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Step into this spacious stucco home offering an affordable opportunity with a well-designed split floor plan. The home features a modern kitchen with granite countertops, upgraded cabinetry, and a full stainless steel appliance package including range, microwave, dishwasher, and refrigerator. Tile flooring runs throughout, complemented by ceiling fans and thoughtful finishes. Enjoy the beautiful lot with fresh sod and a peaceful setting. Conveniently located near Rainbow River and the World Equestrian Center, this property provides easy access to a wide range of outdoor activities and events in Marion County. Homestead or Investment great pick!

Key facts

• Ceiling fans
• Upgraded cabinetry
• Tile flooring

Tags

• STUCCO HOME
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPGRADED CABINETRY
• TILE FLOORING
• CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car, approximately 12x20); Carport present
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-06-15); One story; Faces south; Attached property
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Brooks Construction (model JC1)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Cleared corner lot; Located in county

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Split bedroom layout; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets; Inside utility room; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

🏗️ New construction. The $209,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $232,848.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunnellon Elementary School (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 580 students, 61% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1161 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $180,852 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14689 SW 30th Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,232 (0%)	8mo	$210,900	$171	80
14663 SW 30th Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,232 (0%)	9mo	$205,900	$167	79
3314 SW 144 Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,211 (-2%)	13mo	$235,000	$194	63
14386 SW 26th Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,127 (-8%)	14mo	$225,000	$200	61
15228 SW 16th St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+3%)	8mo	$237,900	$188	57
2329 SW 143rd Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+12%)	12mo	$259,900	$188	55
14346 SW 30th Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,399 (+14%)	4mo	$245,000	$175	53
2388 SW 143rd Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,058 (-14%)	16mo	$199,900	$189	48
14175 SW 30th Street Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,127 (-8%)	15mo	$215,000	$191	46
15422 SW 30 St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,089 (-12%)	10mo	$224,000	$206	38
14140 SW 19th Pl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,399 (+14%)	17mo	$239,900	$171	34
3290 SW 151st Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-14%)	15mo	$212,995	$200	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-49,196
• Equity at exit: $34,718

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-57,525
• Equity at exit: $20,132

Cash invested: $65,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1161
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,221
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$291 /mo · $3,493/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,037

Max offer price $206,740

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-100	+0% $-180	+5% $-261	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-252	+0% $-180	+5% $-109	+10% $-38
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-121	base $-180	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,212
• Closing costs: $6,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14665 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,900	$1.55	15d	1	0.28mi
14445 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	23d	1	0.33mi
15388 SW 26th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	15d	1	0.75mi
14070 SW 17th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,500	$1.08	23d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $209,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $209,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-05-21
   listed $209,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,493
• − Insurance: −$1,164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$6,774
• Taxable loss: −$6,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,499
• After-tax cash flow: $-667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is under construction and requires extensive renovation to become move-in ready. Completing the construction and making necessary improvements will significantly increase its value for resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete construction and installation of kitchen, bathrooms, and other systems — Completing construction will make the home move-in ready and suitable for both resale and rental.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the exterior will improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems installation — Installing these systems will ensure the home is functional and energy-efficient, appealing to both buyers and renters.
• Both Interior finishing and paint — Finishing the interior and painting will make the home more attractive and ready for occupancy.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom fixtures and appliances — Installing fixtures and appliances will complete the kitchen and bathroom, making the home fully functional and ready for use.
• Both Landscaping and sod installation — Landscaping and sod will enhance the curb appeal and make the home more inviting for potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete construction and installation of kitchen, bathrooms, and other systems — Completing construction will make the home move-in ready and suitable for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the exterior will improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems installation — Installing these systems will ensure the home is functional and energy-efficient, appealing to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Interior finishing and paint — Finishing the interior and painting will make the home more attractive and ready for occupancy. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom fixtures and appliances — Installing fixtures and appliances will complete the kitchen and bathroom, making the home fully functional and ready for use. ↑
• Both Landscaping and sod installation — Landscaping and sod will enhance the curb appeal and make the home more inviting for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Park, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid