38 Carmine Dr · Wappingers Falls, NY 12590

$325,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,064 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1965 4,356 sqft lot $305/sqft · at area comps Est $336k · at est. $533/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

This is a beautiful and spacious end unit in the Leewood Arms Complex. The townhouse features hardwood flooring throughout. A spacious kitchen and dining area make this home a gem and a convenient half bath downstairs compliment the full bathroom upstairs. The patio/outdoor space allows for a great place to relax or entertain. Common laundry area with an extra storage space. Close to the train station and walking distance to the village.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Extra storage space
• Patio outdoor space

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PATIO OUTDOOR SPACE
• COMMON LAUNDRY AREA
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• CLOSE TO TRAIN STATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowner association with monthly fee of $533; HOA fee includes gas, grounds care, heat, hot water, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse (single family residence)
• Construction: Brick and frame exterior
• Exterior features: Brick and frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total (bedroom count not specified separately)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: No basement; Attic: none

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $665 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.5% in Wappingers Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#225 in NY, #3,541 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A-, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, employment D.
• Wappingers Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #207 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: James S Evans Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 33% FRL); Wappingers Junior High School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 735 students, 36% FRL); Roy C Ketcham Senior High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,612 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 15% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,271/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 786% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $325k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.76%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,201
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -3.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-22,508
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-12,054
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12590

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,271 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,042/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$533
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$897
• Net cashflow: $665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,430

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $848	-5% $757	+0% $665	+5% $573	+10% $481
Rent	-10% $327	-5% $496	+0% $665	+5% $833	+10% $1,002
Rate	-1.0pp $828	-0.5pp $747	base $665	+0.5pp $580	+1.0pp $495

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,272
Total (2 units)			$4,271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Franklindale Ave Unit B Wappingers Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	815	$1,900	$2.33	24d	1	0.10mi
81 S Mesier Ave Wappingers Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	44d	1	0.21mi
81 Market St Unit 3 Wappingers Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1065	$2,500	$2.35	14d	1	0.33mi
10 Market St Unit C Wappingers Falls, NY	2.0	2.0	935	$2,650	$2.83	44d	1	0.48mi
10 Market St Unit B Wappingers Falls, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,700	$2.70	14d	1	0.48mi
46 N Gilmore Blvd Wappingers Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	864	$2,800	$3.24	44d	1	0.53mi
799 Sergeant Palmateer Way Unit C12 Wappingers Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	741	$2,300	$3.10	14d	1	0.65mi
125 New Hamburg Rd Unit A2 Wappingers Falls, NY	1.0	1.5	1385	$2,700	$1.95	21d	1	0.80mi
5118 Princess Cir Unit Two Bedroom / One Bath Wappingers Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	24d	1	0.97mi
5118 Princess Cir Unit Two Bedroom Wappingers Falls, NY	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,250	$2.21	24d	1	0.97mi
5118 Princess Cir Unit Three Wappingers Falls, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,850	$2.19	24d	1	0.97mi
1668 Route 9 Unit 5M Wappingers Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	911	$2,200	$2.41	44d	1	1.13mi
1668 Route 9 Unit 4F Wappingers Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	876	$2,300	$2.63	44d	1	1.13mi
94 Old Post Rd Unit 15B Wappingers Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	24d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $533 · $6,396/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $325,000 Active 444-char remark
16. 2024-01-30
    historical $2,300
17. 2024-01-20
    listed $2,300
18. 2003-05-10
    soldstatus $123,000
19. 1988-12-28
    soldstatus $98,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,042 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,767 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: +$725/yr (+$60/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,042
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,100
• − Management: −$4,100
• − HOA: −$6,396
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $3,329
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$799
• After-tax cash flow: $7,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wappingers Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629880
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $83,184
• Composite: 53.38/100
• National rank: #1474
• State rank: #207 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wappingers Falls

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #3541

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime C- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wappingers Falls, NY
• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• City population: 35,712
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 35,712
• Household income: $102,285
• Rent vs Own: 30.5% rent · 69.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 786.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -411.49%
• Current HPI: 255.2764
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+231.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Rental Removed $2,300 MHMLS
• 2024-01-20 Listed for Rent $2,300 MHMLS
• 2003-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,042 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.