4193 Broken Bow · East Tawakoni, TX 75453

$219,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2016 0.26 ac lot $135/sqft · 15% above area Est $190k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath, with split bedrooms and an open concept. The home has beautiful finishes with a rustic touch. The large living room and open kitchen area are a great space for entertaining. A new septic system was just installed and there is a 24x16 shed. This beautiful home is located minutes from the lake and common areas. Schedule your showing today! Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information including square footage, schools, HOA, and any information pertaining to this property.

Key facts

• Covered outdoor deck
• Large island
• String lighting

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• COVERED OUTDOOR DECK
• STRING LIGHTING
• PRIVATE COMMUNITY WATERFRONT
• LAKE ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No known restrictions
• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, FHA-203K, USDA Loan
• HOA & community: No association; Community features: campground, fishing, lake

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport for 2 vehicles
• Security: Security system (leased); Smoke detectors; Video surveillance present
• Utilities: Asphalt access; Cable available; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Property attached: Yes
• Construction: Built in 2016; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Roof top deck/patio; Storage structure on property; Vegetation cleared

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Tile counters; Water line to refrigerator; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath, dual sinks, garden tub, separate shower, and linen closet; One bedroom on main level with split-bedroom layout and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Tile countertops; Walk-in closets; Built-in cabinets; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 5; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in East Tawakoni — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,455 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lone Oak ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #310 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lone Oak El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 45% FRL); C B Thompson Middle (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 628 students, 77% FRL); Wh Ford H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 786 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 38% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,504 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,023
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: 15.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $112,955
• Equity at exit: $197,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $337,614
• Equity at exit: $425,469

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75453

• Home prices YoY: 25.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,858/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,871

Max offer price $201,462

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-37	+0% $-99	+5% $-161	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-168	+0% $-99	+5% $-30	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-44	base $-99	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $219,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $219,000 Active 1455-char remark
16. 2026-04-30
    historical
17. 2026-02-24
    price $219,000
18. 2025-11-26
    price $239,900
19. 2025-10-19
    listed $248,600 Active
20. 2023-07-14
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Don't miss out on this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath, with split bedrooms and an open concept. The home has beautiful finishes with a rustic touch. The large living room and open kitchen area are a great space for entertaining. A new septic system was just installed and there is a 24x16 shed. This beautiful home is located minutes from the lake and common areas. Schedule your showing today! Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information including square footage, schools, HOA, and any information pertaining to this property.

21. 2023-07-14
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Don't miss out on this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath, with split bedrooms and an open concept. The home has beautiful finishes with a rustic touch. The large living room and open kitchen area are a great space for entertaining. A new septic system was just installed and there is a 24x16 shed. This beautiful home is located minutes from the lake and common areas. Schedule your showing today! Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information including square footage, schools, HOA, and any information pertaining to this property.

22. 2023-06-29
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Don't miss out on this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath, with split bedrooms and an open concept. The home has beautiful finishes with a rustic touch. The large living room and open kitchen area are a great space for entertaining. A new septic system was just installed and there is a 24x16 shed. This beautiful home is located minutes from the lake and common areas. Schedule your showing today! Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information including square footage, schools, HOA, and any information pertaining to this property.

23. 2023-06-10
    historical Active Option Contract

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Don't miss out on this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath, with split bedrooms and an open concept. The home has beautiful finishes with a rustic touch. The large living room and open kitchen area are a great space for entertaining. A new septic system was just installed and there is a 24x16 shed. This beautiful home is located minutes from the lake and common areas. Schedule your showing today! Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information including square footage, schools, HOA, and any information pertaining to this property.

24. 2023-06-07
    listed $199,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Don't miss out on this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath, with split bedrooms and an open concept. The home has beautiful finishes with a rustic touch. The large living room and open kitchen area are a great space for entertaining. A new septic system was just installed and there is a 24x16 shed. This beautiful home is located minutes from the lake and common areas. Schedule your showing today! Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information including square footage, schools, HOA, and any information pertaining to this property.

25. 2022-12-05
    status Active
26. 2022-11-26
    status Pending
27. 2022-11-16
    price $187,500
28. 2022-09-28
    listed $188,900 Active
29. 2021-08-19
    soldstatus
30. 2021-08-13
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2021-07-09
    status Pending
32. 2021-07-03
    historical Active Option Contract
33. 2021-06-11
    price $159,000
34. 2021-04-01
    price $174,900
35. 2021-01-29
    price $179,000
36. 2020-12-26
    listed $183,500 Active
37. 2017-02-27
    soldstatus
38. 2012-03-06
    soldstatus
39. 1999-10-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,858 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,150/yr (+$96/mo · 40.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,858
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$5,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,200
• After-tax cash flow: $9/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lone Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828020
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,628
• Composite: 36.72/100
• National rank: #4593
• State rank: #310 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Tawakoni

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1455
• US rank: #24873

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,832

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.45%
• Current HPI: 255.6167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-19 Listed $248,600 NTREIS
• 2023-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-06-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-06-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-06-07 Listed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2022-12-05 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-11-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-11-16 Price Changed $187,500 NTREIS
• 2022-09-28 Listed $188,900 NTREIS
• 2021-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-13 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-07-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-07-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-06-11 Price Changed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2021-04-01 Price Changed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2021-01-29 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2020-12-26 Listed $183,500 NTREIS
• 2017-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,858 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.