461 Melrose Ct · Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$259,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1985 10,018 sqft lot Est $225k · 15% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT 3/1.5 home in the heart of highly sought after Green Cove Springs! This block construction home has a brand new roof just installed 3/7/22, new interior paint, new knockdown ceilings and a fully fenced in backyard! Electrical panel was upgraded in 2011. Backyard is large, fully fenced and has great potential for a private relaxing space. Photo #2 is an artist rendering of the possibilities for this space. This home is located in a semi cul-de-sac and just two blocks from a future ''green belt'' space. Close to medical facilities, restaurants and shopping with more coming soon to the area.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• New tile flooring
• Flex space

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• FULLY VINYL-FENCED BACKYARD
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW TILE FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity connected; Water available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Located on a cul-de-sac / dead-end street; Irregular-shaped lot; Paved road access; East-facing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood; Vinyl; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Primary bedroom on the downstairs level
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Green Cove Springs — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,537 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
463 Melrose Ct	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,025 (-2%)	10mo	$159,000	$155	87
596 S West St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,032 (-2%)	6mo	$260,000	$252	86
429 Melrose Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,025 (-2%)	6mo	$199,000	$194	83
1514 Thomas St	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-4%)	11mo	$230,000	$228	67
411 Pearl St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+9%)	5mo	$240,000	$211	65
466 Sally St	0.10mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	3mo	$238,000	$198	64
403 Vermont Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+3%)	1mo	$240,000	$222	60
104 Jack St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,180 (+12%)	1mo	$252,000	$214	59
1221 Lindenhurst Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+14%)	11mo	$255,000	$212	59
304 Highland Ave S	0.32mi	3/1.0	943 (-10%)	9mo	$223,000	$236	59
1303 Bonaventure Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,185 (+13%)	5mo	$267,500	$226	56
20 Vermont Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,145 (+9%)	4mo	$225,000	$197	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-62,567
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-93,185
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 885
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,093/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,182

Max offer price $214,800

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4019 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4019 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	23d	1	0.43mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	2d	1	0.45mi
806 Oak St Unit 10 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	3d	1	0.45mi
806 Oak St Unit 10 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	2d	1	0.45mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	3d	1	0.45mi
4016 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4016 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	23d	1	0.45mi
4028 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4028 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	23d	1	0.45mi
410 Center St Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	23d	1	0.91mi
4028 Pine Ave Unit 1 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	0.99mi
4019 Pine Ave Unit 1 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	0.99mi
104 Saint Elmo Rd Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,850	$1.65	23d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $259,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-05-06
    price $259,000
12. 2026-02-16
    listed $269,000 Active
13. 2022-06-05
    historical 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    GREAT 3/1.5 home in the heart of highly sought after Green Cove Springs! This block construction home has a brand new roof just installed 3/7/22, new interior paint, new knockdown ceilings and a fully fenced in backyard! Electrical panel was upgraded in 2011. Backyard is large, fully fenced and has great potential for a private relaxing space. Photo #2 is an artist rendering of the possibilities for this space. This home is located in a semi cul-de-sac and just two blocks from a future ''green belt'' space. Close to medical facilities, restaurants and shopping with more coming soon to the area.

14. 2022-05-03
    price $293,800 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    GREAT 3/1.5 home in the heart of highly sought after Green Cove Springs! This block construction home has a brand new roof just installed 3/7/22, new interior paint, new knockdown ceilings and a fully fenced in backyard! Electrical panel was upgraded in 2011. Backyard is large, fully fenced and has great potential for a private relaxing space. Photo #2 is an artist rendering of the possibilities for this space. This home is located in a semi cul-de-sac and just two blocks from a future ''green belt'' space. Close to medical facilities, restaurants and shopping with more coming soon to the area.

15. 2022-04-28
    price $296,000 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    GREAT 3/1.5 home in the heart of highly sought after Green Cove Springs! This block construction home has a brand new roof just installed 3/7/22, new interior paint, new knockdown ceilings and a fully fenced in backyard! Electrical panel was upgraded in 2011. Backyard is large, fully fenced and has great potential for a private relaxing space. Photo #2 is an artist rendering of the possibilities for this space. This home is located in a semi cul-de-sac and just two blocks from a future ''green belt'' space. Close to medical facilities, restaurants and shopping with more coming soon to the area.

16. 2022-04-12
    price $295,000 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    GREAT 3/1.5 home in the heart of highly sought after Green Cove Springs! This block construction home has a brand new roof just installed 3/7/22, new interior paint, new knockdown ceilings and a fully fenced in backyard! Electrical panel was upgraded in 2011. Backyard is large, fully fenced and has great potential for a private relaxing space. Photo #2 is an artist rendering of the possibilities for this space. This home is located in a semi cul-de-sac and just two blocks from a future ''green belt'' space. Close to medical facilities, restaurants and shopping with more coming soon to the area.

17. 2022-02-25
    listed $297,000 Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    GREAT 3/1.5 home in the heart of highly sought after Green Cove Springs! This block construction home has a brand new roof just installed 3/7/22, new interior paint, new knockdown ceilings and a fully fenced in backyard! Electrical panel was upgraded in 2011. Backyard is large, fully fenced and has great potential for a private relaxing space. Photo #2 is an artist rendering of the possibilities for this space. This home is located in a semi cul-de-sac and just two blocks from a future ''green belt'' space. Close to medical facilities, restaurants and shopping with more coming soon to the area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,093
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$7,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,831
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Green Cove Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Cove Springs, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 34,562
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $259,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $269,000 realMLS
• 2022-06-05 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-05-03 Price Changed $293,800 realMLS
• 2022-04-28 Price Changed $296,000 realMLS
• 2022-04-12 Price Changed $295,000 realMLS
• 2022-02-25 Listed $297,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,093 · +20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.