7847 Bergamot Cir · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$303,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,678 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $282k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

For a home that's designed to complement any lifestyle, try the Leyland! The foyer leads back into an inviting layout, showcasing an open kitchen that overlooks a spacious great room and a dining area. With this floor plan, entertaining is just as easy as everyday living! The primary suite is upstairs, boasting a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Two secondary bedrooms and a shared bath are nearby, and the laundry room is also conveniently located on this level.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $303,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property; Address: 7847 Bergamot Cir, Magnolia TX 77354
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1678

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (Leyland plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-451 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,742 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.36%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,904
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7745 Bergamot Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,678 (0%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	97
7823 Bergamot Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,678 (0%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	97
203 Brazen Forest Trl	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,678 (0%)	2mo	$279,900	$167	85
7749 Bergamot Cir	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+6%)	0mo	$289,900	$162	82
209 Valiant Ridge Trl	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,678 (0%)	2mo	$284,900	$170	81
175 Courageous Side Way	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-1%)	1mo	$279,900	$168	71
7819 Bergamot Cir	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,897 (+13%)	1mo	$299,900	$158	70
20 Courageous Side Way	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,708 (+2%)	1mo	$288,990	$169	68
8026 Peppercorn St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+4%)	2mo	$265,000	$151	66
7950 Alset Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+6%)	2mo	$299,900	$168	66
8031 Heroes Hall Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+6%)	0mo	$294,900	$165	64
8410 Sweet Cherry Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-11%)	1mo	$285,000	$190	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $131,329
• Equity at exit: $273,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $399,450
• Equity at exit: $590,411

Cash invested: $85,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,558/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,658

Max offer price $238,622

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-241	-5% $-346	+0% $-451	+5% $-556	+10% $-661
Rent	-10% $-616	-5% $-534	+0% $-451	+5% $-369	+10% $-286
Rate	-1.0pp $-298	-0.5pp $-374	base $-451	+0.5pp $-530	+1.0pp $-610

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,975
• Closing costs: $9,117
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	45d	1	0.29mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	14d	1	0.41mi
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,280	$1.24	0d	1	0.43mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	45d	1	0.65mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	26d	1	0.65mi
3 Peachridge Pl Unit 1 Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$1,950	$1.18	22d	1	1.25mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	26d	1	1.26mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	13d	1	1.26mi
7698 Flintridge Dr Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1191	$1,535	$1.29	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $303,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $303,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $303,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $303,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $303,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $303,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $303,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $303,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $303,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $303,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $303,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $303,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $303,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $303,900 Active 9 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,023
• − Property taxes: −$4,558
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$8,841
• Taxable loss: −$10,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,616
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B