3586 Gilmer Ave · Montgomery, AL
Flood risk 4/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.21%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $916 – $1,700
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 8/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 80.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +29.0/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +6.9/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.7/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$110,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This property is an investment property, occupied with tenants, does need some TLC.
Key facts
- 0.28 acre lot
- Parking
- Built 1957
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
- Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities D-.
- Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Bellingrath Middle School (math 0% / reading 12%, grade F, #252 of 257 statewide, top 98%, 607 students, 96% FRL, charter); Lanier Senior High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #265 of 305 statewide, top 89%, 798 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 70% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 7% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Montgomery County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $76k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.19% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.41%
- Cash-on-cash
- 14.71%
- DSCR
- 1.65
- GRM
- 7.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $64,341
- List price
- $110,000
- Delta
- 70.96%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3653 Kelley Ln | 0.21mi | 4/1.0 (+1) | 1,934 (+4%) | 0mo | $50,000 | $26 | 75 |
| 3607 S Court St | 0.46mi | 3/2.0 | 1,703 (-9%) | 2mo | $32,500 | $19 | 63 |
| 3469 Wellington Rd | 0.61mi | 3/2.0 | 1,782 (-4%) | 3mo | $49,900 | $28 | 62 |
| 628 Lynwood Dr | 0.71mi | 3/2.0 | 1,834 (-2%) | 5mo | $106,000 | $58 | 60 |
| 3319 Lexington Rd | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 | 1,777 (-5%) | 7mo | $160,000 | $90 | 56 |
| 3653 Cloverdale Rd | 0.71mi | 3/2.0 | 1,768 (-5%) | 3mo | $100,000 | $57 | 55 |
| 3357 Wilmington Rd | 0.54mi | 3/2.0 | 2,064 (+11%) | 2mo | $165,000 | $80 | 55 |
| 3417 Wellington Rd | 0.70mi | 3/2.0 | 1,722 (-8%) | 1mo | $100,000 | $58 | 54 |
| 3455 Wellington Rd | 0.64mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 2,038 (+9%) | 3mo | $100,000 | $49 | 47 |
| 3637 Cloverdale Rd | 0.70mi | 3/2.0 | 1,655 (-11%) | 3mo | $90,000 | $54 | 47 |
| 3622 Audubon Rd | 0.74mi | 3/2.0 | 1,659 (-11%) | 1mo | $86,000 | $52 | 46 |
| 3424 Le Bron Ct | 0.62mi | 3/2.0 | 1,643 (-12%) | 7mo | $60,000 | $37 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 5.2%
- Equity multiple
- 1.20×
- Total profit
- $6,187
- Equity at exit
- $16,401
- IRR
- 14.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.18×
- Total profit
- $36,192
- Equity at exit
- $9,511
Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Alabama
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 36105
- Home prices YoY
- -32.6%
- Active inventory
- 79
- Price-to-rent
- 7.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,314 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$577
- Tax from tax record
- −$38 /mo · $455/yr
- Insurance
- −$46
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$276
- Net cashflow
- $378
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $440 | -5% $409 | +0% $378 | +5% $347 | +10% $315 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $274 | -5% $326 | +0% $378 | +5% $430 | +10% $481 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $433 | -0.5pp $406 | base $378 | +0.5pp $349 | +1.0pp $320 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $27,500
- Closing costs
- $3,300
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 29 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3544 Southmont Dr Montgomery, AL | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1774 | $1,300 | $0.73 | 22d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 3543 Berkley Dr Montgomery, AL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2067 | $1,575 | $0.76 | 15d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 3386 Lexington Rd Unit B Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1950 | $900 | $0.46 | 22d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 3735 Bridlewood Dr Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1386 | $895 | $0.65 | 45d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 3338 S Hull St Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1311 | $1,150 | $0.88 | 22d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 3485 Wellington Rd Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2437 | $1,395 | $0.57 | 22d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 3304 Gilmer Ave Montgomery, AL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2009 | $1,400 | $0.70 | 22d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 3720 Stanley Dr Montgomery, AL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1719 | $1,650 | $0.96 | 22d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 3649 Princeton Rd Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1266 | $1,200 | $0.95 | 22d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 3708 Princeton Rd Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1749 | $900 | $0.51 | 22d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 548 Winston Dr Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1396 | $1,000 | $0.72 | 45d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 3369 Montezuma Rd Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1281 | $1,150 | $0.90 | 45d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 3235 Norman Bridge Rd Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1873 | $900 | $0.48 | 45d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 3256 Montezuma Rd Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1515 | $1,450 | $0.96 | 45d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 139 Mount Vernon Dr Unit A Montgomery, AL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1700 | $1,000 | $0.59 | 45d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 3510 Bankhead Ave Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2210 | $2,250 | $1.02 | 45d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 3356 Audubon Rd Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1340 | $950 | $0.71 | 45d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 3616 Gaston Ave Montgomery, AL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1629 | $1,300 | $0.80 | 45d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 3577 Whiting Ave Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1269 | $1,150 | $0.91 | 45d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 1067 Roslyn Dr Montgomery, AL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1760 | $1,125 | $0.64 | 22d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 1919 Norman Bridge Ct Unit 1043838P Montgomery, AL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1539 | $4,108 | $2.67 | 45d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 428 Thorn Pl Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1549 | $1,450 | $0.94 | 45d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 4037 Oak St Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1314 | $1,450 | $1.10 | 45d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 1437 Beaumont Dr Montgomery, AL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2029 | $1,500 | $0.74 | 45d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 519 Thorn Pl Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1632 | $650 | $0.40 | 22d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 2727 Boultier St Montgomery, AL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1070 | $1,582 | $1.48 | 15d | 3 | 1.29mi |
| 334 Felder Ave Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2223 | $2,395 | $1.08 | 45d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 4342 Sunshine Dr Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1323 | $1,250 | $0.94 | 15d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 1434 E Audubon Rd Montgomery, AL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2237 | $1,475 | $0.66 | 45d | 1 | 1.34mi |
Listing history 11 events
-
2026-06-01days on market $110,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $110,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $110,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-02-28$110,000 Active 83-char remark
Show marketing remark (83 chars)
This property is an investment property, occupied with tenants, does need some TLC.
-
2026-02-25$110,000 Active 83-char remark
Show marketing remark (83 chars)
This property is an investment property, occupied with tenants, does need some TLC.
-
2022-03-02soldstatus $76,000
-
2020-02-19soldstatus $76,000
-
2009-04-27soldstatus $14,000
-
2008-11-07$18,200
-
2003-09-24soldstatus $58,900
-
2002-05-30$58,900
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $455 · $38/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $455 · $38/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $15,771
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,162
- − Property taxes
- −$455
- − Insurance
- −$550
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,262
- − Management
- −$1,262
- − Depreciation
- −$3,200
- Taxable income
- $2,881
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$691
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,840/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Montgomery County
- NCES district ID
- 0102430
- Math proficiency
- 9% ▼ -21.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 31% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,902
- Composite
- 17.24/100
- National rank
- #9093
- State rank
- #106 of 129 in AL
Livability — Montgomery
- Score
- 65/100
- State rank
- #138
- US rank
- #13416
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Montgomery, AL
- County
- Montgomery County · 190,016 people
- City population
- 175,913
- Metro
- Montgomery, AL
- Population (ZIP)
- 9,207
- Household income
- $41,486
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 679.0
Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 224,008 people
- By 2030
- 221,460 · -1.1%
- By 2040
- 214,179 · -4.4%
- By 2050
- 204,912 · -8.5%
- By 2075
- 177,821 · -20.6%
- By 2100
- 145,134 · -35.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (83%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 83% White 12% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada, South Korea
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · Spanish 4%
Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -31.17%
- Current HPI
- 64.4673
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Montgomery, AL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.94%
- F500 in state
- 4
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 1 | $8B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 1 | $5B |
|
||
Price history
+86.8% since first listed8 events — show timeline
- 2026-02-28 Listed $110,000 MAAR
- 2026-02-25 Listed $110,000 Greater Alabama MLS
- 2022-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
- 2020-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
- 2009-04-27 Sold (MLS) $14,000 MAAR
- 2008-11-07 Listed $18,200 MAAR
- 2003-09-24 Sold (MLS) $58,900 MAAR
- 2002-05-30 Listed $58,900 MAAR
Property tax history
+9.2%/yrLatest (2025): $455 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…