127 Queechy Shores Bch · Pittsfield, MA 12029

$395,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1930 5,227 sqft lot $392/sqft · 7% below area Est $424k · 7% under $79/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Queechy Lake Cottage, a vintage Hudson Valley retreat on Queechy Lake in Northern Columbia County's Canaan. Built in the 1930s on land that once served as a boys' camp, this charming 1,008-square-foot cottage offers indoor-outdoor living with three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the kind of peaceful lake living that feels increasingly rare. Outside, the compact cottage includes a level lawn with room for a garden, parking for two vehicles, and a spacious deck for entertaining, grilling, or unwinding after a day at the lake. As a member of the Queechy Shores Association, the property includes rare access to a private beach, lake docking, and mooring rights. The beach sits a five-m

Key facts

• Level lawn
• Open living area
• Warm wood paneling

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• TALL VAULTED CEILINGS
• WARM WOOD PANELING
• LARGE SCREENED PORCH
• LEVEL LAWN
• SMALL STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $353k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Pittsfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#70 in MA, #3,820 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D+, crime D.
• Chatham Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #353 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mary E Dardess Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 360 students, 45% FRL); Chatham Middle School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 186 students, 44% FRL); Chatham High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 323 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $395k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $353,191 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.33%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $424,107
• List price: $395,000
• Delta: -6.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Paige Rd	0.27mi	4/1.0 (+1)	950 (-6%)	11mo	$539,900	$568	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-31,533
• Equity at exit: $85,138

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $5,160
• Equity at exit: $80,967

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12029

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,532 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,235/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,377

Max offer price $395,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $234	+0% $122	+5% $11	+10% $-101
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-17	+0% $122	+5% $262	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $223	base $122	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $395,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $395,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $395,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $395,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $395,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $395,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $395,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-02-05
    listed $445,000 Active
18. 2026-02-05
    listed $445,000 Active
19. 2017-05-09
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,235 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,547 · $379/mo
• Expected delta: +$312/yr (+$26/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$4,235
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,391
• − Management: −$3,391
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$5,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $2,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chatham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,460
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #2835
• State rank: #353 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pittsfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #3820

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 44,848
• Population (ZIP): 1,017

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 384.886
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+196.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $445,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $445,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,235 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.