2124 Sterling Cove Blvd · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$256,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2005 $222/sqft · 9% below area Est $282k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This affordable 2BD/1.5BA beach townhome is located in the gated community of Gates at Sterling Cove. The main level features an open floor plan w a half bath downstairs, while upstairs offers two spacious bedrooms and a full bath. The HOA includes pool access, lawn maintenance, pest control, annual pressure washing, and garbage service--providing easy, low-maintenance living. Conveniently situated near the Navy base, schools, shopping, and more, this property is ideal as an investment or for first-time buyers. Short-term rentals are not permitted. Age, square footage, lot size, and room dimensions are approximate and should be verified if important.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open floor plan
• Pool access

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• POOL ACCESS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with gated entry; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Gated parking; 1-car garage
• Security: Gated community; Security gate
• Utilities: Electricity available; Underground utilities; Public sewer
• Home design: 2 stories; Single-family zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built on 2 levels
• Exterior features: Patio; Balcony; Covered porch/patio; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level); Additional bedroom (second level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric heating
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Balcony; Covered patio/porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $256k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,082 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,274
• List price: $256,000
• Delta: -9.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2130 Sterling Cove Blvd	0.02mi	2/1.5	1,152 (0%)	3mo	$243,000	$211	95
2136 Sterling Cove Blvd	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,152 (0%)	7mo	$160,000	$139	91
2122 Sterling Cove Blvd	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,182 (+3%)	11mo	$241,000	$204	84
140 Heritage Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,169 (+2%)	3mo	$310,000	$265	70
124 Heritage Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,315 (+14%)	10mo	$295,000	$224	42
307 Fan Palm Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+8%)	20mo	$343,500	$276	36
138 Treasure Palm Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,287 (+12%)	12mo	$350,000	$272	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-55,430
• Equity at exit: $38,170

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-68,641
• Equity at exit: $22,134

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,620/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,111

Max offer price $219,726

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-60	-5% $-133	+0% $-205	+5% $-278	+10% $-350
Rent	-10% $-352	-5% $-278	+0% $-205	+5% $-132	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-76	-0.5pp $-140	base $-205	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	23d	1	0.04mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,940	$1.91	15d	41	0.07mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.07mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$1,900	$1.34	15d	6	0.34mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	23d	1	0.43mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	23d	1	0.46mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,792	$1.86	15d	12	0.62mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,250	$2.07	15d	18	0.63mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,200	$1.43	15d	2	0.71mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	15d	1	0.83mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	15d	1	0.85mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	15d	1	0.90mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	15d	1	0.94mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	15d	1	1.08mi
2521 Allison Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	23d	1	1.13mi
6422 W Highway 98 #1405 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1384	$3,850	$2.78	23d	1	1.19mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	23d	1	1.32mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	23d	1	1.35mi
6625 Harbour Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	23d	1	1.40mi
6728 Sunrise Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	966	$1,600	$1.66	15d	1	1.45mi
6588 Harbour Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,760	$1.47	23d	1	1.45mi
8730 Thomas Dr Unit 1355041P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	839	$1,373	$1.64	23d	1	1.48mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $256,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $256,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $256,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $258,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $258,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $258,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $258,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $258,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $258,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $258,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 30 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 29 DOM
20. 2026-05-01
    listed $260,000 Active 658-char remark
21. 2021-12-14
    historical
22. 2021-12-09
    historical
23. 2015-04-20
    soldstatus $112,500
24. 2015-01-15
    listed $119,900
25. 2010-07-04
    listed $189,900
26. 2005-10-21
    soldstatus $165,645
27. 2005-01-04
    listed $230,000
28. 2004-03-02
    listed $165,645

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,620 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,620 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$2,620
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$7,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,687
• After-tax cash flow: $-777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+54.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $256,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $258,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $260,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2015-04-20 Sold (MLS) $112,500 CPARMLS
• 2015-01-15 Listed $119,900 CPARMLS
• 2010-07-04 Listed $189,900 CPARMLS
• 2005-10-21 Sold (MLS) $165,645 CPARMLS
• 2005-01-04 Listed $230,000 CPARMLS
• 2004-03-02 Listed $165,645 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,620 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.