6400 Winchester St · Anchorage, AK 99507

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Land · 2 Days on market

Built 1971 8,060 sqft lot $86/sqft · 122% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a spacious corner lot. This property offers plenty of potential, just in need of some TLC. Being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 8,060 sq ft lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Mobile home (double wide); Built in 1971; Not attached
• Construction: Other foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Private yard; Outdoor storage

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (1 full bath, 1 three-quarter bath)
• Interior features: Bedroom and bathroom on the main level; Primary bedroom and bathroom on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kasuun Elementary (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #83 of 156 statewide, top 59%, 289 students, 42% FRL); Hanshew Middle School (math 24% / reading 37%, grade F, #27 of 36 statewide, top 74%, 691 students, 42% FRL); Service High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #21 of 61 statewide, top 33%, 1,544 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.70%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,015
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 122.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $65,197
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $199,400
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99507

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,720 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,511/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $1,231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,162

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,310	-5% $1,270	+0% $1,231	+5% $1,191	+10% $1,151
Rent	-10% $1,016	-5% $1,123	+0% $1,231	+5% $1,338	+10% $1,446
Rate	-1.0pp $1,301	-0.5pp $1,266	base $1,231	+0.5pp $1,194	+1.0pp $1,158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6521 Baby Bear Dr Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.42mi
2969 Silver Chase Ct Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,700	$1.95	44d	1	0.57mi
2134 E 56th Ave Anchorage, AK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,839	$2.80	14d	8	1.12mi
8124 Marsha Loop Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,700	$1.82	44d	1	1.26mi
1674 Woodroe Ln #14 Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,500	$1.83	44d	1	1.36mi
2721 E 84th Ave Unit A Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1376	$2,900	$2.11	24d	1	1.42mi
7308 Chugach Meadows Loop Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.5	1240	$2,550	$2.06	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 134-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $139,900 Active 134-char remark
3. 2020-12-27
   status Active
4. 2020-12-22
   price $155,000
5. 2020-12-05
   listed $165,000 Active
6. 2011-03-01
   soldstatus
7. 2002-08-01
   soldstatus
8. 2002-05-17
   listed $125,000
9. 2002-05-17
   listed $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,511 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,588 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,511
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,611
• − Management: −$2,611
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $13,297
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,191
• After-tax cash flow: $11,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 37,301
• Household income: $107,992
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Asian 16% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 6% Black 4% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.29%
• Current HPI: 273.1227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+11.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $139,900 AKMLS
• 2020-12-27 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2020-12-22 Price Changed $155,000 AKMLS
• 2020-12-05 Listed $165,000 AKMLS
• 2011-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-05-17 Listed $125,000 AKMLS
• 2002-05-17 Listed $125,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,511 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.