6855 State Route 149 · Granville, NY 12832

$199,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2003 1.38 ac lot $149/sqft · 34% below area Est $327k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely, affordable manufactured ranch, with recent paint, cathedral ceiling, wood burning fireplace, brand new laminate floors & wall to wall carpet. Great master bedroom w/private bath, eat in kitchen w/pantry, seperate laundry. Beautiful backyard deck .. 14'x20', large 12'x12' garden shed. All in great condition.

Key facts

• 1.38 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 4; Stone driveway
• Utilities: Electric with circuit breakers; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Shed(s); Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with ensuite (first level); Two additional bedrooms (first level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on first level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane fuel
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Living room wood-burning fireplace; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#846 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Granville Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #521 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mary J Tanner Primary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 312 students, 42% FRL); Granville Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #511 of 729 statewide, top 71%, 202 students, 50% FRL); Granville Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 496 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $200k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $122,898 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.81%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,383
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -38.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-37,992
• Equity at exit: $45,417

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-45,726
• Equity at exit: $45,315

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12832

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,884/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $143,773

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-205	-5% $-261	+0% $-318	+5% $-374	+10% $-431
Rent	-10% $-415	-5% $-366	+0% $-318	+5% $-269	+10% $-221
Rate	-1.0pp $-217	-0.5pp $-267	base $-318	+0.5pp $-370	+1.0pp $-422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $199,900 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,900 Contingent 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Contingent 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Contingent 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Contingent 25 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Contingent 24 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   historical Contingent 1488-char remark
8. 2026-05-07
   listed $199,900 Active 1488-char remark
9. 2014-09-26
   soldstatus $77,500 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Lovely, affordable manufactured ranch, with recent paint, cathedral ceiling, wood burning fireplace, brand new laminate floors & wall to wall carpet. Great master bedroom w/private bath, eat in kitchen w/pantry, seperate laundry. Beautiful backyard deck .. 14'x20', large 12'x12' garden shed. All in great condition.

10. 2014-09-26
    soldstatus $77,500

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Lovely, affordable manufactured ranch, with recent paint, cathedral ceiling, wood burning fireplace, brand new laminate floors & wall to wall carpet. Great master bedroom w/private bath, eat in kitchen w/pantry, seperate laundry. Beautiful backyard deck .. 14'x20', large 12'x12' garden shed. All in great condition.

11. 2014-09-16
    listed $85,000 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Lovely, affordable manufactured ranch, with recent paint, cathedral ceiling, wood burning fireplace, brand new laminate floors & wall to wall carpet. Great master bedroom w/private bath, eat in kitchen w/pantry, seperate laundry. Beautiful backyard deck .. 14'x20', large 12'x12' garden shed. All in great condition.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,884 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,631 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$747/yr (+$62/mo · 39.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,884
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$7,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,802
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612450
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,936
• Composite: 34.32/100
• National rank: #5237
• State rank: #521 of 590 in NY

Livability — Granville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #846
• US rank: #16391

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,395

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,576 people
• By 2030: 57,618 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 52,751 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 47,514 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 35,690 · -40.1%
• By 2100: 24,807 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+20.2 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.30%
• Current HPI: 326.4556
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+135.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $199,900 Global MLS
• 2014-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 2014-09-26 Sold (MLS) $77,500 Global MLS
• 2014-09-16 Listed $85,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,884 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.