4222 5th Ave · Pace, FL 32571

$59,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,605 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1962 0.38 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your contractor and your vision to 4222 5th Ave in Pace. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with 1,605 sqft offers a strong value-add opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a renovation project in a growing Pace market. The home needs a full renovation, but the competitive pricing reflects the condition and current occupancy situation, creating potential upside for the right buyer. The roof is approximately 15 years old, and the property offers a solid footprint with plenty of room to rework the layout, update finishes, and bring it back to life. Whether you are looking for a flip, rental, or long-term hold, this one has the kind of price point and potential investors loo

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.38 acres; Building footprint about 1,605 square feet; Sold as-is (property needs full renovation; access may be limited due to occupancy)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Front entrance access
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story (one level); Not attached to another property; Resale property; No road maintenance responsibility
• Construction: Frame construction; Off-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Corner lot; Open loop geothermal heat pump system; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not updated
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 12' x 12'; Additional bedrooms on the first floor, each approximately 10' x 10'
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Sun room; Carpet flooring
• Laundry & utility: No water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 31.0% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $411 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $60k implies a 417% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.17%
• DSCR: 4.92
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,505
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4285 Seventh Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-4%)	6mo	$194,450	$127	72
3725 Martin St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-11%)	9mo	$295,000	$207	64
4048 Edgefield St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-2%)	4mo	$274,990	$175	58
3830 University St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-14%)	11mo	$285,000	$206	51
3861 Wilkes St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-7%)	18mo	$298,000	$200	50
4319 Bayou Ridge Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+11%)	9mo	$340,000	$191	41
4225 Willow St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-14%)	8mo	$249,000	$181	40
4329 Floridatown Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,374 (-14%)	7mo	$235,000	$171	37
4307 Ridgeland Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,720 (+7%)	19mo	$300,000	$174	36
4210 Stephens Rd	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,375 (-14%)	16mo	$116,500	$85	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $67,757
• Equity at exit: $8,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.43×
• Total profit: $157,095
• Equity at exit: $5,144

Cash invested: $16,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $373/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $1,224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $466

Max offer price $59,500

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,875
• Closing costs: $1,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3982 Edgefield St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,750	$1.54	14d	1	0.74mi
4606 Southern Pl Milton, FL	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,500	$1.05	14d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $59,500 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-05-28
   listed $59,500 Active
3. 1975-08-01
   soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $373 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,333
• − Property taxes: −$373
• − Insurance: −$298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − Depreciation: −$1,731
• Taxable income: $14,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,499
• After-tax cash flow: $11,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+417.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $59,500 PARMLS
• 1975-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $373 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.