5991 Scott Rd · Gloucester Courthouse, VA 23061

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1979 0.54 ac lot $252/sqft · at area comps Est $335k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and well-maintained 3-bedroom home with 2 full bathrooms is situated on a spacious half-acre lot offering comfort, updates, and room to enjoy both inside and out. This move-in ready property features numerous recent improvements, including a brand-new jacuzzi shower in the primary bathroom (2026), newer interior doors, and updated light switches throughout for a fresh, modern feel. Major system updates provide peace of mind, including a 50-year roof (2017), water heater (2018), HVAC system (2019), dishwasher (2026), washer (2026), and dryer (2020). A one-year home warranty is included for additional buyer confidence. Enjoy the expansive outdoor space with plenty of room for enterta

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Stove; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes bedroom on the first/main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; One full bath includes a shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Electric heating available
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Breakfast area; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-848/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Gloucester Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#150 in VA, #4,823 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bethel Elementary (math 68% / reading 72%, grade A-, #311 of 1,108 statewide, top 28%, 498 students, 66% FRL); Peasley Middle (math 53% / reading 74%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 620 students, 37% FRL); Gloucester High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 1,531 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 29% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $320k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,060 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,662
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -4.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7759 Belroi Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+11%)	2mo	$325,000	$231	67
6097 Wiatt St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+15%)	6mo	$345,000	$237	59
5632 Fawn Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	16mo	$249,900	$208	45
7249 Deer Run Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,110 (-12%)	19mo	$238,000	$214	33
5739 Crany Creek Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+11%)	21mo	$323,000	$229	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-56,500
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-55,581
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23061

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,300/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,430

Max offer price $307,512

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $20	+0% $-71	+5% $-161	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-163	+0% $-71	+5% $22	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $11	base $-71	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 959-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $320,000 Active 959-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   historical $320,000 959-char remark
4. 2013-05-13
   soldstatus $165,000
5. 2007-07-02
   soldstatus $166,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,300 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,624 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,324/yr (+$110/mo · 101.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$1,300
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,247
• − Management: −$2,247
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$6,541
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,570
• After-tax cash flow: $721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gloucester County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101620
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,815
• Composite: 56.19/100
• National rank: #1177
• State rank: #37 of 131 in VA

Livability — Gloucester Courthouse

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #4823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gloucester Courthouse, VA
• City population: 23,219
• Population (ZIP): 23,219

Population outlook (Gloucester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,437 people
• By 2030: 37,286 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 36,224 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 34,171 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 30,472 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 25,832 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gloucester

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.4) · D 30.4% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -38.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.4 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.96%
• Current HPI: 175.0236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+92.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $320,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $320,000 CVRMLS
• 2013-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $166,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,300 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.