1615 Knox St · Dublin, GA 31021

$199,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,006 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1967 0.33 ac lot $99/sqft · 17% below area Est $239k · 17% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained all brick home. Entering the home is a large Living Room/Dining Room with hardwood floors. The Kitchen to the home is spacious with abundance of cabinetry and is open to the Family Room. Throughout the home is great storage with built in drawers and large closets. Two of the bedrooms have hardwood floors. The Owners' bedroom has bath, walk-in closet, 2 other closets, and built-in drawers. It also can access a large Screen Porch through French Doors. The 4th Bedroom can be use as an office, playroom, or flex room. There is a walk-in closet as well as bathroom in this space. The Screen Porch is perfect for relaxing and overlooking the backyard which is completely fenced. There also are 2 poured concrete pads for future utility buildings or can be used for a great firepit area. This home has had one owner and has been well cared for. Shopping, Restaurants, and Medical are close by.

Key facts

• Built in drawers
• Spacious kitchen
• Large closets

Tags

• ALL BRICK HOME
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINETRY
• BUILT IN DRAWERS
• LARGE CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.2% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#322 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dublin City (town): math 10% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #165 of 174 in GA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 55 units permitted in Laurens County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,133/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1279% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Laurens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.68%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,320
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -16.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Woods Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,974 (-2%)	12mo	$199,000	$101	74
220 West Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (+0%)	1mo	$205,000	$102	63
1816 Knox St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-9%)	1mo	$215,000	$118	60
203 Zenith St	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,114 (+5%)	4mo	$235,000	$111	57
104 Lancaster St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,988 (-1%)	12mo	$210,000	$106	56
202 N Lancaster St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (-12%)	5mo	$148,000	$84	53
107 Vernon St	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,056 (+2%)	15mo	$204,000	$99	52
205 Cedar Creek Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,803 (-10%)	12mo	$325,000	$180	51
408 Pine Forest St	0.24mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,240 (+12%)	17mo	$299,000	$133	48
102 Fox Fire Ct	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,135 (+6%)	13mo	$305,000	$143	40
113 Geneva St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,784 (-11%)	18mo	$160,000	$90	36
1414 Stonewall St	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,794 (-11%)	13mo	$194,999	$109	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,737
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,169
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31021

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $379	+0% $310	+5% $241	+10% $173
Rent	-10% $142	-5% $226	+0% $310	+5% $394	+10% $479
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $361	base $310	+0.5pp $259	+1.0pp $206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
412 Roberson St Dublin, GA	4.0	3.0	2152	$2,500	$1.16	44d	1	0.07mi
1810 Pine Forest Cir Dublin, GA	4.0	3.5	2624	$1,995	$0.76	44d	1	0.42mi
113 Ramsey St Dublin, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	44d	1	0.91mi
218 Brookwood Dr Dublin, GA	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,695	$0.94	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $199,000 Under Contract 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-04-28
    status Back On Market 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    Well maintained all brick home. Entering the home is a large Living Room/Dining Room with hardwood floors. The Kitchen to the home is spacious with abundance of cabinetry and is open to the Family Room. Throughout the home is great storage with built in drawers and large closets. Two of the bedrooms have hardwood floors. The Owners' bedroom has bath, walk-in closet, 2 other closets, and built-in drawers. It also can access a large Screen Porch through French Doors. The 4th Bedroom can be use as an office, playroom, or flex room. There is a walk-in closet as well as bathroom in this space. The Screen Porch is perfect for relaxing and overlooking the backyard which is completely fenced. There also are 2 poured concrete pads for future utility buildings or can be used for a great firepit area. This home has had one owner and has been well cared for. Shopping, Restaurants, and Medical are close by.

12. 2026-04-18
    historical Active Under Contract 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    Well maintained all brick home. Entering the home is a large Living Room/Dining Room with hardwood floors. The Kitchen to the home is spacious with abundance of cabinetry and is open to the Family Room. Throughout the home is great storage with built in drawers and large closets. Two of the bedrooms have hardwood floors. The Owners' bedroom has bath, walk-in closet, 2 other closets, and built-in drawers. It also can access a large Screen Porch through French Doors. The 4th Bedroom can be use as an office, playroom, or flex room. There is a walk-in closet as well as bathroom in this space. The Screen Porch is perfect for relaxing and overlooking the backyard which is completely fenced. There also are 2 poured concrete pads for future utility buildings or can be used for a great firepit area. This home has had one owner and has been well cared for. Shopping, Restaurants, and Medical are close by.

13. 2026-03-03
    price $199,000 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    Well maintained all brick home. Entering the home is a large Living Room/Dining Room with hardwood floors. The Kitchen to the home is spacious with abundance of cabinetry and is open to the Family Room. Throughout the home is great storage with built in drawers and large closets. Two of the bedrooms have hardwood floors. The Owners' bedroom has bath, walk-in closet, 2 other closets, and built-in drawers. It also can access a large Screen Porch through French Doors. The 4th Bedroom can be use as an office, playroom, or flex room. There is a walk-in closet as well as bathroom in this space. The Screen Porch is perfect for relaxing and overlooking the backyard which is completely fenced. There also are 2 poured concrete pads for future utility buildings or can be used for a great firepit area. This home has had one owner and has been well cared for. Shopping, Restaurants, and Medical are close by.

14. 2026-02-12
    listed $229,000 New 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    Well maintained all brick home. Entering the home is a large Living Room/Dining Room with hardwood floors. The Kitchen to the home is spacious with abundance of cabinetry and is open to the Family Room. Throughout the home is great storage with built in drawers and large closets. Two of the bedrooms have hardwood floors. The Owners' bedroom has bath, walk-in closet, 2 other closets, and built-in drawers. It also can access a large Screen Porch through French Doors. The 4th Bedroom can be use as an office, playroom, or flex room. There is a walk-in closet as well as bathroom in this space. The Screen Porch is perfect for relaxing and overlooking the backyard which is completely fenced. There also are 2 poured concrete pads for future utility buildings or can be used for a great firepit area. This home has had one owner and has been well cared for. Shopping, Restaurants, and Medical are close by.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
• − Management: −$2,048
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $589
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$141
• After-tax cash flow: $3,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dublin City
• NCES district ID: 1301870
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,841
• Composite: 10.16/100
• National rank: #9796
• State rank: #165 of 174 in GA

Livability — Dublin

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #322
• US rank: #17202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dublin, GA
• County: Laurens County · 28,190 people
• City population: 28,190
• Metro: Dublin, GA
• Population (ZIP): 28,190
• Household income: $55,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1279.0

Population outlook (Laurens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,685 people
• By 2030: 44,056 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 40,270 · -11.9%
• By 2050: 36,094 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 26,275 · -42.5%
• By 2100: 17,160 · -62.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 45% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Laurens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.7) · D 33.5% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -32.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.7 2020: R+28.2 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+22.7 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.86%
• Current HPI: 186.3422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Metro: Dublin, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $229,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $323 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.