1531 Helmer Lake Rd · Comins, MI 48621

$134,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

1.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming Cottage/Home nestled on 1.3 acres with county road frontage! This cozy 672 sqft cottage/home offers the perfect Up North retreat or year-round residence. The inviting knotty pine interior creates a warm, rustic atmosphere, complemented by efficient wood heat. Outside, you'll find a paved driveway, a 12' x 18' storage shed, & an impressive 24' x 32' drive-thru garage featuring a 10' overhead door, electric, & concrete floor--ideal for storing vehicles, recreational equipment, or setting up a workshop. Enjoy easy access to everything Oscoda County has to offer, including countless lakes, 1000's of acres of St. land & the Huron Nat'l Forest, extensive trail systems, &a

Key facts

• Knotty pine interior
• Drive-through garage
• Paved driveway

Tags

• KNOTTY PINE INTERIOR
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED
• DRIVE-THROUGH GARAGE
• OVERHEAD DOOR
• ELECTRIC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached, paved 2-car garage; Paved driveway/access
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Natural vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Blinds; Wood burning stove / wood heat; Refrigerator, Oven, Range
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($620/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fairview Area School District (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #244 of 760 in MI (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $108,141 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $70,005
• Equity at exit: $114,412

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $201,947
• Equity at exit: $239,533

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48621

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $469/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $90	+0% $52	+5% $13	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $9	+0% $52	+5% $94	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $86	base $52	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $134,900 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 687-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $134,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $469 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,273 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$804/yr (+$67/mo · 171.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$469
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,038
• − Management: −$1,038
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$1,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $1,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairview Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2610560
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,353
• Composite: 41.42/100
• National rank: #7306
• State rank: #244 of 760 in MI

Livability — Comins

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,087

Population outlook (Oscoda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,410 people
• By 2030: 6,884 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 5,853 · -21.0%
• By 2050: 5,055 · -31.8%
• By 2075: 3,832 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 2,863 · -61.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oscoda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.3) · D 27.2% · R 71.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.0pp · 2024: -44.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.3 2020: R+43.6 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Current HPI: 210.9497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $134,900 WWMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $469 · -48.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.