879 County Road 2167 · Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77327

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1980 8,659 sqft lot $82/sqft · 18% above area Est $64k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to this serene 0.1988-acre lot on Mason Lake. Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath home with an expansive deck that looks out to Mason Lake. Great lakeside retreat. Wooded lot offers a sense of seclusion. Great also for a weekend retreat. This property is perfect for the outdoor enthusiasts. Offering wildlife sighting, right outside your door. Seller, since owning, has added some new flooring, kitchen sink, new stovetop, lights outside, new toilet and vanity, some new siding and paint inside. The washer and dryer will stay and seller will remove current refrigerator but will bring back the black refrigerator from when they purchased in 2025. Metal roof.

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• New flooring
• New stovetop

Tags

• EXPANSIVE DECK
• WOODED LOT
• WILDLIFE SIGHTING
• NEW FLOORING
• KITCHEN SINK
• NEW STOVETOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.49%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,817
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 17.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1999 County Road 2166	0.67mi	2/1.0	898 (-2%)	9mo	$65,000	$72	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-2,682
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $14,308
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $146	+0% $124	+5% $103	+10% $82
Rent	-10% $23	-5% $74	+0% $124	+5% $175	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $144	base $124	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Pending 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $75,000 Pending 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $75,000 Pending 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-04-15
   listed $75,000 Active 661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (661 chars)

   Escape to this serene 0.1988-acre lot on Mason Lake. Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath home with an expansive deck that looks out to Mason Lake. Great lakeside retreat. Wooded lot offers a sense of seclusion. Great also for a weekend retreat. This property is perfect for the outdoor enthusiasts. Offering wildlife sighting, right outside your door. Seller, since owning, has added some new flooring, kitchen sink, new stovetop, lights outside, new toilet and vanity, some new siding and paint inside. The washer and dryer will stay and seller will remove current refrigerator but will bring back the black refrigerator from when they purchased in 2025. Metal roof.

9. 2025-03-17
   soldstatus Sold 837-char remark

   Show marketing remark (837 chars)

   Escape to this serene 0.1988-acre lot on Mason Lake, where a charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home awaits your creative touch to become a perfect lakeside retreat. Surrounded by lush, wooded landscapes, this property offers privacy and a sense of seclusion, ideal for those seeking a peaceful weekend escape. The expansive deck overlooks Mason Lake, providing breathtaking views and the perfect space to unwind with sights of the nearby Trinity River. A true fixer-upper, this lakefront gem is ready for you to customize and create your dream getaway. With close access to Long Lake and River Lake, this property is perfect for outdoor enthusiasts, offering opportunities for boating, fishing, hiking, and wildlife observation right outside your door. Embrace the tranquility and beauty of lakeside living and schedule your private tour today!

10. 2025-03-13
    soldstatus
11. 2025-02-20
    status Pending 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Escape to this serene 0.1988-acre lot on Mason Lake, where a charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home awaits your creative touch to become a perfect lakeside retreat. Surrounded by lush, wooded landscapes, this property offers privacy and a sense of seclusion, ideal for those seeking a peaceful weekend escape. The expansive deck overlooks Mason Lake, providing breathtaking views and the perfect space to unwind with sights of the nearby Trinity River. A true fixer-upper, this lakefront gem is ready for you to customize and create your dream getaway. With close access to Long Lake and River Lake, this property is perfect for outdoor enthusiasts, offering opportunities for boating, fishing, hiking, and wildlife observation right outside your door. Embrace the tranquility and beauty of lakeside living and schedule your private tour today!

12. 2025-01-16
    price $75,000 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Escape to this serene 0.1988-acre lot on Mason Lake, where a charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home awaits your creative touch to become a perfect lakeside retreat. Surrounded by lush, wooded landscapes, this property offers privacy and a sense of seclusion, ideal for those seeking a peaceful weekend escape. The expansive deck overlooks Mason Lake, providing breathtaking views and the perfect space to unwind with sights of the nearby Trinity River. A true fixer-upper, this lakefront gem is ready for you to customize and create your dream getaway. With close access to Long Lake and River Lake, this property is perfect for outdoor enthusiasts, offering opportunities for boating, fishing, hiking, and wildlife observation right outside your door. Embrace the tranquility and beauty of lakeside living and schedule your private tour today!

13. 2024-11-13
    listed $85,000 Active 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Escape to this serene 0.1988-acre lot on Mason Lake, where a charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home awaits your creative touch to become a perfect lakeside retreat. Surrounded by lush, wooded landscapes, this property offers privacy and a sense of seclusion, ideal for those seeking a peaceful weekend escape. The expansive deck overlooks Mason Lake, providing breathtaking views and the perfect space to unwind with sights of the nearby Trinity River. A true fixer-upper, this lakefront gem is ready for you to customize and create your dream getaway. With close access to Long Lake and River Lake, this property is perfect for outdoor enthusiasts, offering opportunities for boating, fishing, hiking, and wildlife observation right outside your door. Embrace the tranquility and beauty of lakeside living and schedule your private tour today!

14. 2024-10-17
    soldstatus
15. 2012-03-23
    soldstatus
16. 2012-03-15
    soldstatus
17. 2005-10-13
    historical
18. 2005-06-15
    listed $43,000
19. 1998-02-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $412 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$961/yr (+$80/mo · 233.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$5,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,227
• − Management: −$1,227
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$143
• After-tax cash flow: $1,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Thicket Lake Estates

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1532
• US rank: #26123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+74.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-13 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-10-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-06-15 Listed $43,000 HARMLS
• 1998-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $412 · -52.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.