1017 SW 154th St · Burien, WA 98166

$1,925,000

21 bd · 9.8 ba · 9,250 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1967 0.29 ac lot $208/sqft · at area comps Est $1906k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 7 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Built in 1967, the Holly Lane Apartments sit on a 12,846 sqft lot in a peaceful lakeside neighborhood in the heart of downtown Burien. The building is comprised of 10 spacious two-bedroom/one-bathroom floor plans that average 925 sqft. The apartments have functional layouts, abundant storage, complete kitchen appliance packages, and private balconies/patios. The units have been well maintained with a mix of “classic” interior finishes and light updates such as LVP flooring and appliances. Building features and amenity spaces include a very large common laundry area on the lower level, secure resident and manager/owner storage lockers and a large office space suitable for a prope

Key facts

• Common laundry area
• Large office space
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• LAKESIDE NEIGHBORHOOD
• COMMON LAUNDRY AREA
• SECURE RESIDENT STORAGE
• MANAGER STORAGE LOCKERS
• LARGE OFFICE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.93M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-24/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.90M (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.59M (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.59M (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.1% in Burien — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#115 in WA, #2,330 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Highline School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #200 of 291 in WA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $15,907/mo this rent would consume 166% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 577% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $58k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.69M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $910k; list at $1.93M implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,590,700 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,906,250
• List price: $1,925,000
• Delta: 0.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-307,047
• Equity at exit: $287,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-216,456
• Equity at exit: $166,439

Cash invested: $539,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98166

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 70.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,907 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,095
• Tax from tax record: −$1,835 /mo · $22,015/yr
• Insurance: −$802
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,340
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,116

Max offer price $1,895,838

Occupancy floor 96%

7-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 7× units	3	—	$15,904
Total (7 units)			$15,907

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $481,250
• Closing costs: $57,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,925,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,925,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,925,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,925,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,925,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,925,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,925,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $1,925,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
10. 2026-01-02
    listed $1,925,000 Active
11. 2014-12-15
    soldstatus $909,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $22,015 · $1,835/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,015 · $1,835/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $190,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$107,830
• − Property taxes: −$22,015
• − Insurance: −$9,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,271
• − Management: −$15,271
• − Depreciation: −$56,000
• Taxable loss: −$35,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,431
• After-tax cash flow: $6,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highline School District
• NCES district ID: 5303540
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,697
• Composite: 39.12/100
• National rank: #8245
• State rank: #200 of 291 in WA

Livability — Burien

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #2330

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burien, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 60,370
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 22,082
• Household income: $114,969
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 577.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -854.15%
• Current HPI: 332.6728
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+111.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Listed $1,925,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $909,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $22,015 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.