12317 Bay Estuary Bnd · Riverview, FL 33579

$439,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,682 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2017 9,086 sqft lot $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this STUNNING 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home situated on a LARGE, PREMIUM LOT with peaceful WATER VIEWS! From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the EXCEPTIONAL CURB APPEAL with manicured landscaping, fresh mulch, vibrant plants, a stone accented entryway, and a welcoming front door with a glass insert to allow natural light to flood the home. Step inside to an open-concept floor plan where the first floor showcases beautiful MARBLE-LOOK TILE flooring. A spacious flex room at the front of the home enclosed with FRENCH DOORS offers the perfect space for a home office or study. The gourmet kitchen is a true centerpiece, featuring stylish black countertops, stainless steel appliances, a MASSIVE walk-in pantry, and an oversized island ideal for entertaining. The great room is filled with natural light from oversized sliding glass doors that look out to a beautiful yard and pond views. Upstairs, you’ll find elegant WOOD-LOOK flooring throughout, along with a spacious loft, perfect for use as a media center or game room. The LARGE PRIMARY SUITE is a relaxing retreat with abundant natural light, a HUGE walk-in closet, and a spa-like en suite bathroom complete with dual vanities, a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and private commode. Three additional generously sized bedrooms share a full bathroom. An upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience. Step outside to enjoy the expansive backyard and screened lanai, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in the sought-after Triple Creek community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities including THREE community pools, playgrounds, fitness center with group exercise classes, basketball, pickleball, sand volleyball and tennis courts, scenic walking trails, and more—all with convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and beautiful beaches!

Key facts

• Water views
• Premium lot
• 9,086 sq ft lot

Tags

• PREMIUM LOT
• WATER VIEWS
• MANICURED LANDSCAPING
• STONE ACCENTED ENTRYWAY
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MARBLE-LOOK TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($426k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,573 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-68,136
• Equity at exit: $97,165

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-81,796
• Equity at exit: $94,706

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,873/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,564

Max offer price $380,585

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-82	-5% $-206	+0% $-331	+5% $-455	+10% $-579
Rent	-10% $-579	-5% $-455	+0% $-331	+5% $-206	+10% $-82
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-219	base $-331	+0.5pp $-444	+1.0pp $-560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12377 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2414	$2,800	$1.16	25d	1	0.12mi
12330 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2357	$3,300	$1.40	5d	1	0.26mi
11927 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2320	$3,100	$1.34	5d	1	0.42mi
12109 Night Jasmine Cv Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2364	$3,150	$1.33	11d	1	0.43mi
13235 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	2632	$3,333	$1.27	11d	1	0.62mi
12737 Tannencrest Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2470	$3,350	$1.36	18d	1	0.68mi
13037 Pennybrook Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2301	$2,900	$1.26	25d	1	0.70mi
12892 Tannencrest Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,881	$1.14	0d	1	0.71mi
13316 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2497	$3,200	$1.28	25d	1	0.78mi
13316 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2497	$3,200	$1.28	20d	1	0.78mi
12811 Twin Bridges Dr Unit Labs Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2937	$3,250	$1.11	18d	1	0.79mi
13185 Green Violet Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	1908	$2,459	$1.29	5d	1	0.82mi
12036 Cardinal Flower Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2542	$2,590	$1.02	12d	1	0.86mi
12767 Weston Oaks Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$3,450	$1.78	0d	1	1.01mi
13204 Great Plains Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,990	$1.55	5d	1	1.01mi
12975 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2896	$2,600	$0.90	25d	1	1.02mi
12975 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2896	$2,600	$0.90	0d	1	1.02mi
12964 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,300	$1.19	21d	1	1.05mi
12964 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,300	$1.19	5d	1	1.05mi
12967 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,400	$1.24	25d	1	1.05mi
13259 Palmerston Rd Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2633	$2,900	$1.10	25d	1	1.10mi
13456 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1752	$2,500	$1.43	18d	1	1.10mi
11810 Tetrafin Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,750	$1.26	25d	1	1.12mi
13515 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$3,800	$2.05	18d	1	1.18mi
13515 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,800	$2.07	0d	1	1.18mi
13144 Peachleaf Ave Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,995	$1.62	5d	1	1.24mi
13204 Waterleaf Garden Cir Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$3,600	$1.76	5d	1	1.32mi
11838 Blackeyed Susan Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1816	$2,800	$1.54	21d	1	1.32mi
12544 Shining Willow St Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,000	$1.47	0d	1	1.34mi
12544 Shining Willow St Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2035	$3,000	$1.47	4d	1	1.34mi
13337 Woodworth Way Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,850	$1.48	18d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $439,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $475,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $475,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $475,000 1844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

    Welcome home to this STUNNING 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home situated on a LARGE, PREMIUM LOT with peaceful WATER VIEWS! From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the EXCEPTIONAL CURB APPEAL with manicured landscaping, fresh mulch, vibrant plants, a stone accented entryway, and a welcoming front door with a glass insert to allow natural light to flood the home. Step inside to an open-concept floor plan where the first floor showcases beautiful MARBLE-LOOK TILE flooring. A spacious flex room at the front of the home enclosed with FRENCH DOORS offers the perfect space for a home office or study. The gourmet kitchen is a true centerpiece, featuring stylish black countertops, stainless steel appliances, a MASSIVE walk-in pantry, and an oversized island ideal for entertaining. The great room is filled with natural light from oversized sliding glass doors that look out to a beautiful yard and pond views. Upstairs, you’ll find elegant WOOD-LOOK flooring throughout, along with a spacious loft, perfect for use as a media center or game room. The LARGE PRIMARY SUITE is a relaxing retreat with abundant natural light, a HUGE walk-in closet, and a spa-like en suite bathroom complete with dual vanities, a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and private commode. Three additional generously sized bedrooms share a full bathroom. An upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience. Step outside to enjoy the expansive backyard and screened lanai, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in the sought-after Triple Creek community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities including THREE community pools, playgrounds, fitness center with group exercise classes, basketball, pickleball, sand volleyball and tennis courts, scenic walking trails, and more—all with convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and beautiful beaches!

17. 2026-04-19
    listed $499,900 Active 1844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

    Welcome home to this STUNNING 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home situated on a LARGE, PREMIUM LOT with peaceful WATER VIEWS! From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the EXCEPTIONAL CURB APPEAL with manicured landscaping, fresh mulch, vibrant plants, a stone accented entryway, and a welcoming front door with a glass insert to allow natural light to flood the home. Step inside to an open-concept floor plan where the first floor showcases beautiful MARBLE-LOOK TILE flooring. A spacious flex room at the front of the home enclosed with FRENCH DOORS offers the perfect space for a home office or study. The gourmet kitchen is a true centerpiece, featuring stylish black countertops, stainless steel appliances, a MASSIVE walk-in pantry, and an oversized island ideal for entertaining. The great room is filled with natural light from oversized sliding glass doors that look out to a beautiful yard and pond views. Upstairs, you’ll find elegant WOOD-LOOK flooring throughout, along with a spacious loft, perfect for use as a media center or game room. The LARGE PRIMARY SUITE is a relaxing retreat with abundant natural light, a HUGE walk-in closet, and a spa-like en suite bathroom complete with dual vanities, a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and private commode. Three additional generously sized bedrooms share a full bathroom. An upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience. Step outside to enjoy the expansive backyard and screened lanai, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in the sought-after Triple Creek community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities including THREE community pools, playgrounds, fitness center with group exercise classes, basketball, pickleball, sand volleyball and tennis courts, scenic walking trails, and more—all with convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and beautiful beaches!

18. 2014-08-01
    soldstatus $16,341,250
19. 2010-04-13
    soldstatus $14,750,000
20. 2004-12-15
    soldstatus $22,945,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,873 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,873 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$3,873
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,020
• − Management: −$3,020
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$11,816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,836
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Listed $499,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,341,250 Public Records
• 2010-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $14,750,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $22,945,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,873 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.