7062 Merlyn Dethlefsen Rd · Panama City, FL 32404

$259,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Built 2026 6,229 sqft lot Est $286k · 9% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Freeport, a new home floor plan at Liberty in Panama City, Florida. The Freeport is a one-story home with a double garage designed with space for the family in mind and affordability. On the outside of your home, you will see durable vinyl siding, a spacious two-car garage with an opener and a fully sodded yard to the property lines. This home comes equipped with dimensional shingles with a limited lifetime warranty, electronic deadbolts on all exterior doors, weatherproof outlets, and hose bibs. As you enter this 4-bedroom, 2 bath home, you will find 1,458 square feet of spacious, comfortable living. Inside you will see 8' ceilings throughout, engineered vinyl plank flooring

Key facts

• Fully sodded yard
• Hose bibs
• Electronic deadbolts

Tags

• TWO CAR GARAGE
• FULLY SODDED YARD
• DIMENSIONAL SHINGLES
• ELECTRONIC DEADBOLTS
• WEATHERPROOF OUTLETS
• HOSE BIBS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-775/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tommy Smith Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 639 students, 53% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,179 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,768
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7067 George Day Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,458 (0%)	1mo	$269,900	$185	98
7055 George Day Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,458 (0%)	1mo	$272,900	$187	98
7054 Merlyn Dethlefsen Rd	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,458 (0%)	2mo	$264,738	$182	98
7083 George Day Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,458 (0%)	2mo	$272,900	$187	96
7039 George Day Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+8%)	2mo	$299,400	$189	77
6998 William Pitsenbarger Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+8%)	1mo	$310,000	$196	76
7006 William Pitsenbarger Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+8%)	2mo	$309,000	$196	75
6558 Canley Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-5%)	2mo	$267,500	$193	73
7066 Merlyn Dethlefsen Rd	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-13%)	2mo	$259,900	$204	72
7071 George Day Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-13%)	1mo	$259,900	$204	72
7047 George Day Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-13%)	1mo	$259,900	$204	71
7079 George Day Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-13%)	2mo	$249,900	$196	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-50,266
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-65,016
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,898/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $250,553

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $25	+0% $-65	+5% $-154	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-151	+0% $-65	+5% $22	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $2	base $-65	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6416 Bellavia Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,100	$1.16	15d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,900 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,900 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $259,900 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    pricestatus $269,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-04-11
    status Pending
13. 2026-03-30
    price $264,900
14. 2026-03-23
    price $274,900
15. 2026-03-23
    price $287,900
16. 2026-02-24
    price $284,900
17. 2026-01-12
    listed $283,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,898
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,104
• − Management: −$2,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$5,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $264,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $274,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $287,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $284,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $283,900 CPARMLS