7319 Palmetto Ln · Baytown, TX 77521

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1979 9,121 sqft lot Est $241k · at est. $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Gorgeous, recently renovated 3 bed, 2 bath home in the sought-after Pinehurst neighborhood. Spacious living room with high ceilings and a stunning stone fireplace. Modern kitchen with granite countertops and custom capinets. Luxurious primary suite featuring a walk-in closet and private bathroom with lovely tile. Enjoy the covered back patio and large yard with a tall shade tree. Custom plantation shutters add a touch of elegance throughout the house. It's immaculate and move-in ready! * * * Garage Sale & Open House * * * Saturday, May 30, 8:00-1:00.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Stone fireplace
• Covered back patio

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• STONE FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• COVERED BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pinehurst HOA (annual fee of $100); Community amenities include basketball court, picnic area, playground, and park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1979; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms (one on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($480/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clark El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 683 students, 63% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,160 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7318 Palmetto Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	8mo	$234,900	$163	89
7319 Pine Shadows Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+1%)	9mo	$237,000	$161	88
9802 Bayou Woods Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-3%)	2mo	$239,500	$169	85
9915 Bayou Woods Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+2%)	3mo	$244,900	$165	80
9942 Bayou Woods Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+1%)	1mo	$210,000	$142	77
7319 Willow Oak Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+2%)	5mo	$237,000	$159	76
9763 El Chaco St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+10%)	2mo	$150,000	$94	73
9911 Bayou Woods Dr	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,388 (-5%)	1mo	$235,000	$169	73
9910 El Chaco St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+4%)	8mo	$254,900	$169	71
9702 Bayou Woods Dr	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,634 (+12%)	8mo	$269,900	$165	61
10010 Pinehurst St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,546 (+6%)	8mo	$284,000	$184	59
7106 Hopi St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+12%)	8mo	$275,000	$168	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-39,354
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-43,617
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,301/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,071

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $108	+0% $40	+5% $-28	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-44	+0% $40	+5% $124	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $101	base $40	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1716 Sterling Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,250	$1.64	45d	1	1.08mi
1900 Kilgore Pkwy Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,956	$2.13	0d	17	1.22mi
10235 Cedar Crossing St Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,506	$2.28	0d	28	1.28mi
2100 Kilgore Pkwy Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,964	$2.13	0d	13	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,301 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,072/yr (+$89/mo · 32.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,301
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,037
• − Management: −$2,037
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$851
• After-tax cash flow: $1,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $239,000 HARMLS
• 1997-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,301 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.