🏷️ Likely Rental
5335 Main St #212 · Springfield, OR
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $498 – $926
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 91°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 10/10 · Severe
- Unhealthy air days now
- 13 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +15.0/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +5.0/10.0
- DSCR +5.0/10.0
- Livability +4.2/5.0
- Rent growth +3.3/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +2.4/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$28,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath unit with lots of potential! There is a covered deck, carport and storage shed. This home is in Santiago Estates, a 55+ pet friendly community with a club house, seasonal pool, jacuzzi, work out room and more. Must be park approved.
Key facts
- Covered deck
- Carport
- Storage shed
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
- Recommended offer: $25k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 54.0% vs local median 3.0% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 83/100 on livability (#40 in OR, #934 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, employment D+.
- Springfield SD 19 (suburban): math 19% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #48 of 58 in OR (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $194 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $840 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 5.96% ✓
- Cap rate
- 54.01%
- Cash-on-cash
- 170.42%
- DSCR
- 8.58
- GRM
- 1.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $92,954
- List price
- $28,000
- Delta
- -69.88%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5335 Main St #197 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,200 (-6%) | 2mo | $57,000 | $48 | 89 |
| 205 S 54th St #109 | 0.16mi | 2/2.0 | 1,236 (-3%) | 9mo | $69,000 | $56 | 81 |
| 5335 S Main St #155 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,188 (-7%) | 8mo | $54,000 | $45 | 77 |
| 5335 Main St #214 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,188 (-7%) | 8mo | $74,500 | $63 | 77 |
| 5660 Daisy St #69 | 0.35mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,296 (+2%) | 4mo | $295,000 | $228 | 72 |
| 5660 Daisy St #48 | 0.35mi | 2/2.0 | 1,188 (-7%) | 1mo | $263,000 | $221 | 72 |
| 658 S 57th St #81 | 0.33mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,344 (+6%) | 4mo | $57,000 | $42 | 67 |
| 569 S 51st Pl | 0.31mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,152 (-9%) | 2mo | $275,000 | $239 | 63 |
| 578 S 53rd St | 0.24mi | 2/2.0 | 1,440 (+13%) | 8mo | $285,000 | $198 | 60 |
| 5254 Forsythia Dr | 0.27mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,440 (+13%) | 3mo | $286,000 | $199 | 58 |
| 5660 Daisy St #34 | 0.35mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,394 (+10%) | 10mo | $337,147 | $242 | 54 |
| 5089 D St | 0.52mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,456 (+14%) | 2mo | $349,000 | $240 | 45 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 9.55×
- Total profit
- $67,052
- Equity at exit
- $4,175
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 20.45×
- Total profit
- $152,485
- Equity at exit
- $2,421
Cash invested: $7,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 28 Tenant-Leaning
- State Oregon
- 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 97478
- Rents YoY
- 3.4%
- Active inventory
- 263
- Price-to-rent
- 1.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,670 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$147
- Tax from tax record
- −$47 /mo · $566/yr
- Insurance
- −$12
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$351
- Net cashflow
- $1,113
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,129 | -5% $1,121 | +0% $1,113 | +5% $1,106 | +10% $1,098 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $982 | -5% $1,047 | +0% $1,113 | +5% $1,179 | +10% $1,245 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,128 | -0.5pp $1,121 | base $1,113 | +0.5pp $1,106 | +1.0pp $1,099 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $7,000
- Closing costs
- $840
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 18 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 176 S 53rd St Unit 04 Springfield, OR | 2.0 | 1.5 | 971 | $1,250 | $1.29 | 44d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 421 S 58th St Unit 00136 Springfield, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $1,600 | $1.45 | 14d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 5817 Aster St Apt 3 Springfield, OR | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1000 | $1,295 | $1.29 | 14d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 4830 Elderberry Loop Springfield, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 950 | $1,595 | $1.68 | 44d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 4885 Aster St Springfield, OR | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1000 | $1,734 | $1.73 | 14d | 18 | 0.64mi |
| 4800 B St Springfield, OR | 2.0 | 2.0 | 968 | $1,662 | $1.72 | 14d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 5040 E St #1 Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,895 | $1.90 | 14d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 5040 E St #12 Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 1.0 | 912 | $1,895 | $2.08 | 44d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 5040 E St #21 Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,795 | $1.79 | 14d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 1012 53rd St Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1249 | $2,195 | $1.76 | 14d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 1075 56th Pl Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 1.0 | 904 | $1,795 | $1.99 | 44d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 274 S 47th St Unit B Springfield, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 940 | $1,150 | $1.22 | 22d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 1152 S 43rd Pl Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1539 | $2,595 | $1.69 | 14d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 339 S 42nd St Unit 317 Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1444 | $1,895 | $1.31 | 14d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 4173 Glacier View Dr Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1250 | $2,175 | $1.74 | 14d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 490 67th St Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1278 | $2,800 | $2.19 | 44d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 617 S 41st Ct Unit 610 Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1500 | $2,050 | $1.37 | 14d | 1 | 1.46mi |
| 617 S 41st Ct Unit 606 Springfield, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1500 | $2,100 | $1.40 | 14d | 1 | 1.46mi |
Listing history 16 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $28,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $28,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $28,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $28,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $28,000 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $28,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $28,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $28,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $28,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $28,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $28,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $28,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $28,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $28,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-04-03price $32,000 258-char remark
Show marketing remark (258 chars)
Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath unit with lots of potential! There is a covered deck, carport and storage shed. This home is in Santiago Estates, a 55+ pet friendly community with a club house, seasonal pool, jacuzzi, work out room and more. Must be park approved.
-
2026-02-21$35,000 Active 258-char remark
Show marketing remark (258 chars)
Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath unit with lots of potential! There is a covered deck, carport and storage shed. This home is in Santiago Estates, a 55+ pet friendly community with a club house, seasonal pool, jacuzzi, work out room and more. Must be park approved.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $566 · $47/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $566 · $47/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $20,038
- − Mortgage interest
- −$1,568
- − Property taxes
- −$566
- − Insurance
- −$140
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,603
- − Management
- −$1,603
- − Depreciation
- −$815
- Taxable income
- $13,742
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$3,298
- After-tax cash flow
- $10,063/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Springfield SD 19
- NCES district ID
- 4111670
- Math proficiency
- 19% ▼ -13.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 38% ▼ -10.00%
- Median HH income
- $42,236
- Composite
- 24.14/100
- National rank
- #7746
- State rank
- #48 of 58 in OR
Livability — Springfield
- Score
- 83/100
- State rank
- #40
- US rank
- #934
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Springfield, OR
- County
- Lane County · 310,476 people
- City population
- 76,907
- Metro
- Eugene-Springfield, OR
- Population (ZIP)
- 39,373
- Household income
- $80,086
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 904.0
Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 391,933 people
- By 2030
- 405,860 · +3.6%
- By 2040
- 429,386 · +9.6%
- By 2050
- 452,016 · +15.3%
- By 2075
- 508,825 · +29.8%
- By 2100
- 531,208 · +35.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (79%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 1% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 9%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Lane
- 2024 margin
- Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -395.83%
- Current HPI
- 302.9203
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.38%
- Metro
- Eugene-Springfield, OR
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 2
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 1 | $51B |
|
||
Price history
-8.6% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-03 Price Changed $32,000 RMLS
- 2026-02-21 Listed $35,000 RMLS
Property tax history
+5.4%/yrLatest (2025): $566 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…